Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.</li>
<li>Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. </li>
<li>We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. </li>
</ul>


The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 represented a 140% increase from 2021.
Although the total amount of share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in 2023 seems fairly large, this represented only 0.24% of total market caps of Korean companies. 
We also provide a list of seven Korean companies that have been targeted by activist investors  to cancel more shares and improve corporate governance. 


A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jan 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD9.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Jan 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD9.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>DGB Financial Group's market cap makes it virtually impossible to get deleted even with Kakao Pay's GICS change in this June rebalancing.</li>
<li>It's unclear whether this has damaged the price impact of K200 inclusion. Nevertheless, the intensity of the pre-rebalancing flow wasn't aggressive, possibly due to the combination of factors, including this.</li>
<li>This suggests the possibility of an intense price impact resulting from a more concentrated flow right before the effective date, so we should prepare a setup that considers this.</li>
</ul>


DGB Financial Group's market cap makes it virtually impossible to get deleted even with Kakao Pay's GICS change in this June rebalancing.
It's unclear whether this has damaged the price impact of K200 inclusion. Nevertheless, the intensity of the pre-rebalancing flow wasn't aggressive, possibly due to the combination of factors, including this.
This suggests the possibility of an intense price impact resulting from a more concentrated flow right before the effective date, so we should prepare a setup that considers this.


Clarifying Market's Inaccurate Constituent Change Forecast in K200 Rebalancing with GICS Revision

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


As expected, DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) replaces Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 31 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) at the close of trading on 31 March.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.


KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

South Korea

JB Financial Group Co. Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.

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Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Clarifying Market's Inaccurate Constituent Change Forecast in K200 Rebalancing with GICS Revision

This post clarifies the market's inaccurate constituent change forecast on the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June with the GICS revision,...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

DGB Financial will be added to the KOSPI200 Index on 31 March. The stock trades cheaper than its peers but becomes short sell eligible from the...

Brian Freitas

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A 140% Increase in Share Cancellations by Korean Companies from 2021 to 2023

The total amount of share cancellations by Korean companies increased sharply in the past three years. Share cancellations of 6.1 trillion won in...

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 5th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electron, Naver, Kia.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

Clarifying Market's Inaccurate Constituent Change Forecast in K200 Rebalancing with GICS Revision

This post clarifies the market's inaccurate constituent change forecast on the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalancing in June with the GICS revision,...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

DGB Financial will be added to the KOSPI200 Index on 31 March. The stock trades cheaper than its peers but becomes short sell eligible from the...

Brian Freitas