Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls</li>
<li>Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial! As per usual we take you for a chart-heavy guided macro tour around major asset classes.
Conclusions up front: – The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal– Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again– Equities still look (too) expensive on most parameters – JPY and CNY trends to continue worsening– Oil bulls have less to cheer about than Nat Gas bulls
Momentum in 2023 saw a positive impulse from 1) lower input costs for production due to lower commodity and energy prices than in 2022 and 2) Easing financial conditions due to higher multiples and an easing momentum in rates.


Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

<ul><li>Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.</li><li>If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.</li><li>The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?</li></ul>

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

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Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #73 – An Abysmal Impulse for 2024

The credit impulse for 2024 looks abysmal; Rates volatility is likely going to rise sharply again; Equities still look (too) expensive on most...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting...

Steno Research

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