Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Bank of Japan likely to remain on hold till January 2026 with risk of further delay </li>
<li>Once BoJ resumes hiking cycle, it will likely follow twice a year pace till 1.5% </li>
<li>With the Fed cutting rates, the long end of the JGB curve is firmly anchored</li>
</ul>


Bank of Japan likely to remain on hold till January 2026 with risk of further delay 
Once BoJ resumes hiking cycle, it will likely follow twice a year pace till 1.5% 
With the Fed cutting rates, the long end of the JGB curve is firmly anchored


<ul>
<li>BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.</li>
<li>Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.</li>
<li>October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. </li>
</ul>


BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last, with Governor Ueda hinting that policy rates will continue to rise as long as the current economic outlook holds.
Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ, potentially keeping inflation elevated and increasing the risk of a faster tightening cycle.
October 2026 remains our baseline for the next hike. Risks are skewed toward an earlier move though, as soon as July 2026. 


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger flexibility being introduced to the setup.</li>
<li>This also means that JGBs are now effectively tradeable again and that two-way-traffic is introduced as the BoJ can decide to guide the 10yr point both higher and lower within the accepted range given incoming data on prices ahead.</li>
<li>This is very different from just communicating a new clear cap and the 10yr yield is trading around +56 bps on the screens by the time of writing.</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger flexibility being introduced to the setup.
This also means that JGBs are now effectively tradeable again and that two-way-traffic is introduced as the BoJ can decide to guide the 10yr point both higher and lower within the accepted range given incoming data on prices ahead.
This is very different from just communicating a new clear cap and the 10yr yield is trading around +56 bps on the screens by the time of writing.


Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<ul><li>Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.</li><li>Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).</li><li>China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).</li></ul>

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch.Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates despite inflation running above target (≈3.6% annualized).China: Industrial profits up 21.6% YoY in September, marking a two-month streak (August: +20.4%).

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

<ul>
<li>Ueda signals near-term tightening: BoJ Governor Ueda indicated that the next rate hike could come soon, as the Bank awaits only “initial indications” from the 2026 spring wage negotiations. </li>
<li>Timing points to December or January: Our main scenario for the hike to 0.75% is January 22-23 in 2026, but we attach some possibility, 20-30% to December 18-19 in 2025.</li>
<li>U.S. risks remain the key wildcard: A sharper-than-expected U.S. slowdown could delay it, but Absent that, BoJ will hike soon, followed by gradual rise to 1.5% by late 2027. </li>
</ul>


Ueda signals near-term tightening: BoJ Governor Ueda indicated that the next rate hike could come soon, as the Bank awaits only “initial indications” from the 2026 spring wage negotiations. 
Timing points to December or January: Our main scenario for the hike to 0.75% is January 22-23 in 2026, but we attach some possibility, 20-30% to December 18-19 in 2025.
U.S. risks remain the key wildcard: A sharper-than-expected U.S. slowdown could delay it, but Absent that, BoJ will hike soon, followed by gradual rise to 1.5% by late 2027. 


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Japan Treasury (JAPAN GOVT)

Japan Macro: Restarting Coverage

BoJ expected to keep rates on hold until January 2026, potential for delay. When hiking resumes, pace likely to be twice a year until reaching...

Takuji Okubo

More Hikes to Come in 2026-2027

BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last. Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ. The risks are sooner and...

Takuji Okubo

Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger...

Steno Research

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch. Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates...

Dr. Jim Walker

BoJ Ueda Hints at Near-Term Rate Hike

BoJ Governor Ueda signals near-term rate hike pending initial wage negotiations, likely in January 2026, barring U.S. economic risks.

Takuji Okubo

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Macro: Restarting Coverage

​BoJ expected to keep rates on hold until January 2026, potential for delay. When hiking resumes, pace likely to be twice a year until reaching...

Takuji Okubo

More Hikes to Come in 2026-2027

BoJ signals that the next hike will not be the last. Yen weakness and fiscal easing are emerging concerns for the BoJ. The risks are sooner and...

Takuji Okubo

Japan Watch: 1% with Added Flexibility – More or Less Printing from Here?

The Bank of Japan moved the needle on the 10yr YCC from an effective cap 0.5% to a new effective cap at 1% but with a larger...

Steno Research

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 31 Oct 2025

Bank of Japan (BoJ): BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, despite 3% inflation — a clear policy mismatch. Federal Reserve (US): The Fed cut rates...

Dr. Jim Walker

BoJ Ueda Hints at Near-Term Rate Hike

​BoJ Governor Ueda signals near-term rate hike pending initial wage negotiations, likely in January 2026, barring U.S. economic risks.

Takuji Okubo

BoJ expected to keep rates on hold until January 2026, potential for delay. When hiking resumes, pace likely to be twice a year until reaching...

BoJ Governor Ueda signals near-term rate hike pending initial wage negotiations, likely in January 2026, barring U.S. economic risks.