Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:783">NTT</a>  for up to…

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by NTT  for up to…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>At 9M16</td>
<td>Cash</td>
<td>Securities</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>NIM (%)</td>
<td>Profit</td>
<td>LLP/loans(%)</td>
<td>LLP/profit(%)</td>
<td>ROA (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nishi-Nippon</td>
<td>454,094</td>
<td>1,869,789</td>
<td>6,366,571</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>25,326</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>0.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yamagu</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.

At 9M16
Cash
Securities
Loans
NIM (%)
Profit
LLP/loans(%)
LLP/profit(%)
ROA (%)


Nishi-Nippon
454,094
1,869,789
6,366,571
1.17
25,326
0.04
4.56
0.39


Yamagu

…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

Japan

T&D Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Taiyo Life Insurance, Daido Life Insurance, and T&D Financial Life Insurance. The Company manages life insurance operations for its subsidiaries.

LIFENET INSURANCE COMPANY provides a wide range of life insurance products and services. The company mainly provides the products and services through the internet. The company also provides asset management services.

Anicom Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Anicom Insurance, Inc., Anicom Frontier, Inc., Anicom Pafe, Inc. The Company provides health insurance policies for pets and operates insurance agency through internet, personal visiting. Anicom Holdings also researches and provides pet business information.

Advance Create Co., Ltd operates insurance agency through newspaper advertising, internet, visiting, telemarketing.  The Company operates consulting and advertising services.

SBI Insurance Group Co., Ltd. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers life, non-life, short-term, and other insurance products. SBI Insurance Group provides its services in Japan.

Dream Incubator Inc. nurtures venture companies.  The Company supports companies by providing strategic insights and other consulting services.

IRRC Corporation offers insurance services. The Company provides insurance consulting, agency, sales supporting, store development, and other related services. IRRC operates in Japan.

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

CHUOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP CO., LTD. provides Insurance services. The company mainly makes consignment contract with general insurance and life insurance companies and provides insurance agency business.

Medibank Private Limited offers private health care coverage for hospital and ancillary services. The Company offers a range of health insurance products such as health, travel, pet, and life coverage to overseas students and visitors. Medibank serves customers throughout Australia.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance services. The Company offers auto, fire, marine, casualty, health, leisure, and retirement products and services. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance serves customers in South Korea.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS)

Globe Life Inc. operates as an insurance company. The Company offers term, whole, and children's life insurance, as well as accidental benefits, mortgage protection, and medicare supplement plans. Globe Life operates in the State of Texas.

Assurant, Inc. provides specialized insurance and insurance-related products. The Company offers individual and small employer group health insurance, group dental insurance, pre-funded funeral insurance, group disability and life insurance, creditor-placed homeowners insurance, manufactured housing homeowners insurance, debt protection administration, credit insurance, and warranties.

Primerica Inc. distributes financial products to middle income households in North America. The Company products include term life insurance, mutual funds, variable annuities and other financial products, which are distribute primarily on behalf of third parties.

Old Republic International Corporation is an insurance holding company whose subsidiaries market, underwrite, and provide risk management services.  The Company provides services for a variety of coverages in the property and liability, mortgage guaranty, title, and life and health insurance fields.

RLI Corp., through its subsidiaries, underwrites selected property, casualty, and surety insurance products.  The Company's principal subsidiary, RLI Insurance Group, provides specialty property and casualty coverages for primarily commercial risks.

Unipol Gruppo S.p.A sells life and property/casualty insurance and reinsurance in Italy.  The Company's non-life insurance coverage includes accident, health, automobile, railroad rolling stock, aircraft, marine, and fire.

UnipolSai SpA is an multi-line insurance company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, fire, general liability, and credit insurance.

Mapfre SA offers insurance services.  Through subsidiaries, the Company offers health, life, homeowner's, commercial, industrial risk, burial,  accident, automobile, and third-party liability insurance policies.  Mapfre operates in Europe and the Americas.

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

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Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser...

Morningstar, Inc.

JAPAN: How a ToSTNeT-3 Buyback Works

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016,...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Banks Can Lose 30% of Income

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

Japan's Nasty Margin Trend

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that...

Daniel Tabbush

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