Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The downside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.</li>
<li>CVC walks, but it doesn't stop <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brambles-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:693:1" rel="noopener">Brambles Ltd (BXB AU)</a> privatisation speculation. </li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tabcorp-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6837:1" rel="noopener">Tabcorp</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corp</a> are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. </li>
</ul>


The downside to Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) remains, but the reasoned downside is smaller than it was before.
CVC walks, but it doesn't stop Brambles Ltd (BXB AU) privatisation speculation. 
If Tabcorp and The Lottery Corp are seen as low volatility growth properties, then the stability of cashflow puts it into rarified air among "growth bias" which has gotten trashed. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> and its two main components <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...</li>
<li>....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.</li>
<li>But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) and its two main components Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) reported excellent earnings for the year to March 2022...
....but not so excellent forecasts for the year to March 2023. Some of that is conservative. Some is "finger-in-the-air", and some of it is the vagaries of insurance sales accounting.
But they all pay high dividends and Japan Post Holdings announced a ¥200bn buyback. And remember, there will likely Never Be Another JPH Equity Offering, Ever Again. Ever. 


Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) - Ugly Group Forecasts But a Very Bigly Buyback

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we compare it to its international peers and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Government of India (GoI) is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) in its upcoming India IPO.
This is less than half of its initial plans in terms of fundraising target and comes at less than half of its initial valuation target.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we compare it to its international peers and talk about valuations.


Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO - Regional Peer Comparison

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.</li>
<li>Musk has made a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK)'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

Japan

Japan Post Insurance Co. Ltd. operates life insurance business. The Company offers whole life insurance, education endowment, ordinary endowment, medical insurance, and special endowment insurance. Japan Post Insurance provides services for individuals and businesses throughout Japan.

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Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Woodside Petroleum, Brambles, Tabcorp, HKBN, Japan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) - Ugly Group Forecasts But a Very Bigly Buyback

JPH and units posted great earnings to Mar22, and optically disappointing estimates for Mar23. But divs are flat in 2 cases, up for JPI and there's...

Travis Lundy

Life Insurance Corporation of India IPO - Regional Peer Comparison

Government of India is looking to raise around US$2.7bn via selling a 3.5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation of India in its upcoming India IPO....

Sumeet Singh

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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