Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.</li>
<li>We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics; the path of least resistance is higher.
We have discussed for the past two weeks (since our 10/22/24 Compass) how we would treat any pre-election pullback as a buying opportunity, and we are finally getting a pullback.
We expect SPX support at 5600-5670, and will remain bullish as long as 5600 support holds. Starting as early as today/tomorrow, we expect a strong end-of-year rally extending into early-2025


Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2024. There are also several live spin-off and M&amp;A events which could trigger intra-review index changes in the late-2024/early-2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

<ul>
<li>The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."</li>
<li>The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.</li>
<li>As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.</li>
</ul>


The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we've discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 "expected pullback zone."
The current "breakout" above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.


Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

United States

Jacobs Solutions Inc. provides technical professional services. The Company offers engineering and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients including companies, organizations, and government agencies. Jacobs Solutions serves customers worldwide.

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Jacobs Solutions (J US)

Buy the Pullback; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow

Buy the Pullback $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH $VXF; Expecting Significant End of Year Rally to Start as Soon as Today or Tomorrow as market dynamics to...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Dec 24 Rebal: APO, CRH, WDAY, TPL

The S&P500 rebalance in December is shaping up to be a trade worth $8-13bn a side but there is a possible intra-review change to come as well....

Travis Lundy

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Treasury Yields and DXY Climbing; Stay Defensive With $SPX Below 5783

Bull Trap Still Brewing?; Only Confirmed on a Break Below SPX 5670; Treasury Yields, bond volatility (MOVE index), and DXY Climbing, all risk-off...

Vermilion Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

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