Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).</li>
<li>To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.


Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Jacobs Solutions  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Jacobs Engineering Group managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.</li><li>The People and Places line of business of Jacobs Engineering delivered a strong performance.</li><li>The divergent solutions operating unit had a strong operating profit with up in operating profit.</li></ul>

Jacobs Engineering Group managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings.The People and Places line of business of Jacobs Engineering delivered a strong performance.The divergent solutions operating unit had a strong operating profit with up in operating profit.

Jacobs Engineering Group: Infra Growth & The Palantir Partnership Accelerating Its Upward Trajectory? – Key Drivers

United States

TransUnion operates as a credit reporting agency. The Company offers consumer reports, risk scores, analytical services, and decisioning capabilities to businesses. TransUnion provides risk and information solutions to businesses and consumers.

Equifax Inc. brings buyers and sellers together through its information management, transaction processing, direct marketing, and customer relationship management businesses. The company serves the financial services, retail, credit card, telecommunications/utilities, transportation, information technology and healthcare industries and government.

Exponent, Inc. is a science and engineering consulting firm that provides solutions and information to complex problems. The Company performs scientific research and analysis, or evaluations, to solve complicated issues facing a range of industries and governments.

FTI Consulting, Inc. provides corporate finance and restructuring, economic, forensic and litigation, strategic communications, and technology consulting services.  The Company offers restructuring, bankruptcy and performance improvement; antitrust, business valuation and intellectual property; forensic accounting; corporate communications; and computer forensics services.

TriNet Group, Inc. provides human resource and consultancy services. The Company offers payroll, tax administration, risk protection, performance management, compensation consulting, and employee benefit plans. TriNet Group serves technology, advertising, banking, and government sectors in the United States.

Robert Half International, Inc. provides temporary and permanent staffing services.  The Company supplies temporary, full-time and project accounting and finance professionals; temporary administrative support personnel; information technology professionals; temporary, project and full-time lawyers, paralegals and support personnel; and advertising, marketing, and web design professionals.

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops human capital management software. Ceridian HCM Holding provides recruiting, staff monitoring, payroll processing, employee engagement, and human capital management technology services. Ceridian HCM Holding serves customers worldwide.

CBIZ, Inc. provides professional business services to companies throughout the United States.  The Company provides accounting and tax, employee benefits, wealth management, property and casualty insurance, payroll, and HR consulting services.  CBIZ also provides internal audit, litigation advisory, healthcare consulting, medical practice management, and other services.

Dun & Bradstreet Holdings, Inc. provides data and analytics solutions. The Company delivers workflows to inform commercial credit decisions and other related services. Dun & Bradstreet Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Manpowergroup Inc. provides non-governmental employment services through offices located around the world. The Company's principal operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and training and testing of temporary and permanent workers. Manpower provides employment services to a wide variety of customers.

Randstad Holding nv provides temporary employees.  The Company places workers for temporary assignments in educational, secretarial and banking, information technology, engineering, and finance positions.  The Company operates primarily in the Benelux countries, Germany, Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and the United States.

Bureau Veritas SA provides a range of consulting services, including global inspection  and audit, tests and certification applied to quality, hygiene and health.

Intertek Group plc offers product inspection services.  The Company tests textiles, toys, petroleum products, chemicals, electronic products, building materials, and agricultural products.  Intertek inspects and certifies products for safety to governments, exporters and importers, and certifies that import duties are declared and paid.

SGS SA provides industrial inspection, analysis, testing, and verification services. The Company inspects, samples, analyzes, and monitors raw materials, petroleum, food, crops, chemicals, consumer goods, and production machinery for compliance with industrial standards and local regulatory requirements, including tax and duty. SGS serves business worldwide.

Stantec Inc. is an engineering, architecture, and related professional services enterprise.  The Company provides a broad range of consulting, project delivery, design build, and technology capabilities to private and public sector clients, across North America and internationally.

Seek Limited operates an Internet website.  The Company offers online employment advertisements and online training in Australia and New Zealand, and offers online employment advertisements in the United Kingdom targeted at Australian and New Zealand job seekers.

DKSH Holding AG offers international market expansion services with a focus in Asia. The Company provides an integrated portfolio of services, including sourcing, marketing, sales, distribution and after-sales services related to the Consumer Goods, Healthcare, Performance Materials and Technology markets.

Adecco SA is a personnel and temporary employment company.  The Company supplies personnel and temporary help, and offers permanent placement services for professionals and specialists in a range of occupations.  Adecco conducts its placement services internationally.

Adecco Group AG is a personnel and temporary employment company. The Company supplies personnel and temporary help, and offers permanent placement services for professionals and specialists in a range of occupations. Adecco Group conducts its placement services internationally.

Persol Holdings Co., Ltd. provides human resource solutions to a wide variety of customers worldwide. The Company's main operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and employment services. Temp Holdings also provides outsourcing services and employment support services for job seekers.

Jacobs Solutions Inc. provides technical professional services. The Company offers engineering and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients including companies, organizations, and government agencies. Jacobs Solutions serves customers worldwide.

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Jacobs Solutions (J US)

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

Jacobs Engineering Group: Infra Growth & The Palantir Partnership Accelerating Its Upward Trajectory? – Key Drivers

Jacobs Engineering Group managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings. The People and Places line of business of...

Baptista Research

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