Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.</p><p>Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.</p><p>That does not mean the format faces no problems, with <strong>labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions</strong>, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.</p><p>The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.</p>

Convenience store (CVS) retailing remains the most dynamic and innovative physical store sector. It is now 50 years since the first Seven Eleven opened and the sector wide drop in sales in 2020 was the first in its history.Whereas department stores also took a battering last year and are likely to struggle to recover, convenience stores should bounce back quickly, including implementing lessons learned in last year’s crisis.That does not mean the format faces no problems, with labour shortages, overly strict operating procedures and an ageing population of store owners (many are now reaching retirement age with no succession in place) all issues that need solutions, but its willingness and ability to adopt new technologies and adapt to the market will continue to keep CVS strong.The following is an annual in-depth review of the entire CVS sector providing context for investors in any of the big CVS retailers (and their competing formats) as well as reviews of each major firm's KPIs.

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
<p>In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.</p>

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>After being <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0927/2021092700107.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> on the 27 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> ("CPP"), a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP Foods (CPF TB)</a>.</p>
<p>The consideration is $1.15/share, a 19.79% premium to last close. The Offer price will NOT be increased.</p>
<p>CPF holds 49.74% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> 25%. Itochu has entered into a rollover agreement with CPF such that upon successful completion of the Scheme, CPF will hold 75% and Itochu 25%. </p>
<p>The Offer premium is a trifle light to that consistently seen in Hong Kong M&amp;A deals in recent years. Nevertheless, this all looks stitched up and should trade tight when shares resume trading on Monday.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
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After being suspended on the 27 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, Cp Pokphand (43 HK) ("CPP"), a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from CP Foods (CPF TB).
The consideration is $1.15/share, a 19.79% premium to last close. The Offer price will NOT be increased.
CPF holds 49.74% and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) 25%. Itochu has entered into a rollover agreement with CPF such that upon successful completion of the Scheme, CPF will hold 75% and Itochu 25%. 
The Offer premium is a trifle light to that consistently seen in Hong Kong M&amp;A deals in recent years. Nevertheless, this all looks stitched up and should trade tight when shares resume trading on Monday.
More below the fold. 





C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Privatisation Offer From CP Foods

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> (CPP) is a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. After market close on Thursday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a>, the largest shareholder (49.74% of the outstanding shares). The offeror will offer HK$1.15 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 19.79% over the closing price of HK$0.96 per share on the last trading date (24 September prior to the trading halt). </p><p>For good measure, CPP also released a statement outlining a profit warning. CPP noted that the net profit would decline -75% YoY in 8M21, which marks a deterioration to the net profit decline of -50% YoY in 1H21. The profit warning was attributed mainly to a poor performance in China caused by lower poultry and swine prices. CPP notes that poultry and swine prices in China and swine prices in Vietnam will have fallen further in September. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 5,958.8 million shares or 24.75% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 595.9 million shares or 2.48% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the privatisation bid will be successful. </p></div>

Cp Pokphand (43 HK) (CPP) is a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam. After market close on Thursday, it announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme of arrangement from CP FOODS (CPF TB), the largest shareholder (49.74% of the outstanding shares). The offeror will offer HK$1.15 in cash for each scheme share. The bid represents a premium of 19.79% over the closing price of HK$0.96 per share on the last trading date (24 September prior to the trading halt). For good measure, CPP also released a statement outlining a profit warning. CPP noted that the net profit would decline -75% YoY in 8M21, which marks a deterioration to the net profit decline of -50% YoY in 1H21. The profit warning was attributed mainly to a poor performance in China caused by lower poultry and swine prices. CPP notes that poultry and swine prices in China and swine prices in Vietnam will have fallen further in September. The key condition precedents are the headcount test along with the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders and &lt;10% rejection by all disinterested shareholders. As disinterested scheme shareholders represent 5,958.8 million shares or 24.75% of shares outstanding, the 10% blocking stake is 595.9 million shares or 2.48% of shares outstanding. No shareholder holds a blocking stake. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the privatisation bid will be successful. 

C.P. Pokphand’s Privatisation Bid from CPF

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-pokphand-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10135:1" rel="noopener">Cp Pokphand (43 HK)</a> ("CPP") a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, is currently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0927/2021092700107.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. There is, as yet, no further details forthcoming.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-foods-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16131:1" rel="noopener">CP FOODS (CPF TB)</a> (54%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> (25%) collectively control <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllSSList.aspx?sa2=as&amp;sid=64&amp;corpn=C.+P.+Pokphand+Co.+Ltd.&amp;sd=28/09/2014&amp;ed=28/09/2021&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=28%2f09%2f2014&amp;sced=28%2f09%2f2021&amp;sc=43&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;g_lang=en&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">79%</a> of CPP.</p>
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<p>This insight provides some background information on CPP, and also speculates on a fair price should a firm Offer unfold. </p>
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Cp Pokphand (43 HK) ("CPP") a leading agri-food conglomerate in China and Vietnam, is currently suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. There is, as yet, no further details forthcoming.

CP FOODS (CPF TB) (54%) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) (25%) collectively control 79% of CPP.


This insight provides some background information on CPP, and also speculates on a fair price should a firm Offer unfold. 


C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Suspended Pursuant To Takeovers Code

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Convenience Stores: First Decline in 50 Years

For any investor in Japan's consumer staples sector, the convenience store sector is a key component. The following is an in-depth analysis of the...

Michael Causton

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Privatisation Offer From CP Foods

This looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-Feb completion, I'd be paying up to and around $1.11/share which is ~5.8%/16.5 gross/annualised spread, when...

David Blennerhassett

C.P. Pokphand’s Privatisation Bid from CPF

CPP announced a privatisation offer from CPF at HK$1.15 cash for each scheme share. Overall, we think the offer price is attractive and that the...

Arun George

C.P. Pokphand (43 HK): Suspended Pursuant To Takeovers Code

I think you could simply use the unaffected price of HK$0.96 and multiply it by the 30% premium widely seen in M&A transactions around the region...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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