IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/c-i-takiron-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18675:1" rel="noopener">C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> at JPY870, a 9.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY793 (2 August).</li>
<li>The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 10.97% ownership ratio. The tender offer runs from 6 August to 18 September, with payment from 26 September. </li>
<li>While attractive vs peer multiples, the offer is light due to a skinny takeover premium, an implied P/B below 1x, and 9% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation. </li>
</ul>



C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY870, a 9.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY793 (2 August).
The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 10.97% ownership ratio. The tender offer runs from 6 August to 18 September, with payment from 26 September. 
While attractive vs peer multiples, the offer is light due to a skinny takeover premium, an implied P/B below 1x, and 9% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation. 


C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> today announced another TOB to buy out minorities of a sub other than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/c-i-takiron-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18675:1" rel="noopener">C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP)</a> at ¥870. A takeunder.</li>
<li>The stock was up a lot today I assume on news I didn't see. Slightly lower than the close. Low EV/EBITDA multiple. Lacking transparency.</li>
<li>The Board is OK selling at below book, but if one takes out net cash, securities, net receivables, and inventory/materials of one quarter of sales, the rest is 0.54x book.</li>
</ul>



Itochu Corp (8001 JP) today announced another TOB to buy out minorities of a sub other than Descente Ltd (8114 JP). C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) at ¥870. A takeunder.
The stock was up a lot today I assume on news I didn't see. Slightly lower than the close. Low EV/EBITDA multiple. Lacking transparency.
The Board is OK selling at below book, but if one takes out net cash, securities, net receivables, and inventory/materials of one quarter of sales, the rest is 0.54x book.


Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book - Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.
While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light. 


Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oklo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38840" rel="noopener">Oklo (OKLO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-uranium-vanadium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43774" rel="noopener">Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN)</a> will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.</li>
<li>There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.

Oklo (OKLO US) and Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.</li>
<li>This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. </li>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.


Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870

While attractive vs peer multiples, the offer is light due to a skinny takeover premium, an implied P/B below 1x, and 9% below the mid-point IFA...

Arun George

Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book - Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency

Itochu is buying out subsidiary CI Takiron (4215). The process is weak. The Target Board's defence of its shareholders is weak. But this is...

Travis Lundy

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the offer price is light. There is a reasonable chance the shares will trade above...

Arun George

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

The changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index will be implemented at the close tomorrow. There is a fair bit to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

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