IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Nippon Express Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.8 million shares (including overallotment). There are seven selling shareholders.</li>
<li>The secondary offering comes ahead of the implementation of regulatory restrictions on truck drivers' overtime in April 2024, which is widely known as the ‘2024 Problem’.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 11 and 13 March (likely 11 March).</li>
</ul>



Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 4.8 million shares (including overallotment). There are seven selling shareholders.
The secondary offering comes ahead of the implementation of regulatory restrictions on truck drivers' overtime in April 2024, which is widely known as the ‘2024 Problem’.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 11 and 13 March (likely 11 March).


Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sparx-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13158:1" rel="noopener">Sparx Group (8739 JP)</a>’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isuzu-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14726:1" rel="noopener">Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)</a> share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.</li>
<li>The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a 21% downside on a deal break. </li>
</ul>



IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s revised tender offer of JPY850, 4.7% premium to its previous JPY812 offer. The revised offer has been declared final.
The Isuzu Motors (7202 JP) share repurchase price has risen 4.0% from JPY677 to JPY704. The tender closes on 15 January 2024. All other terms are unchanged.
The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no competing bidder points to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a 21% downside on a deal break. 


IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a> was perhaps one of the lower-priced parent takeovers (Isuzu remains central to the bidder post-buyout) at 0.46x book. Today, the last day, it got bumped.</li>
<li>The new price is ¥850/share vs ¥812/share. +4.7% and a whopping 0.48x book now. ¥850 is where the stock traded just before the announcement. It immediately jumped to ¥875/share.</li>
<li>It appears Isuzu is not getting any more money out of this, but they should be OK. They are buying back in at 0.48x book. With leverage. </li>
</ul>



IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) was perhaps one of the lower-priced parent takeovers (Isuzu remains central to the bidder post-buyout) at 0.46x book. Today, the last day, it got bumped.
The new price is ¥850/share vs ¥812/share. +4.7% and a whopping 0.48x book now. ¥850 is where the stock traded just before the announcement. It immediately jumped to ¥875/share.
It appears Isuzu is not getting any more money out of this, but they should be OK. They are buying back in at 0.48x book. With leverage. 


IJTT (7315 JP) - Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sparx-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13158:1" rel="noopener">Sparx Group (8739 JP)</a>’s offer of JPY812 per share, an 18.5% and 16.0% premium to the undisturbed (9 November) and last close price, respectively. </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 23.48% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Despite the modest premium, the offer represents a high five-year share price. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 41.3% minority acceptance rate. </li>
</ul>



IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP) has recommended Sparx Group (8739 JP)’s offer of JPY812 per share, an 18.5% and 16.0% premium to the undisturbed (9 November) and last close price, respectively. 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 23.48% ownership ratio.
Despite the modest premium, the offer represents a high five-year share price. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 41.3% minority acceptance rate. 


IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

Japan

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

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Isuzu Motors (7202 JP)

Nippon Express (9147 JP): A US$260 Million Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between...

Arun George

IJTT (7315 JP): Risk/Reward as SPARX Bumps to JPY850

The shares are trading above the revised terms. A final offer and no signs of a competing bidder point to an unfavourable risk/reward profile - a...

Arun George

IJTT (7315 JP) - Truly Offensive Takeover Price Gets Bumped, Offensively

IJTT saw its Arts-1 Bidco raise the price from ¥812/share to ¥850/share, which is about 1% higher than the average VWAP of the last week. Not...

Travis Lundy

IJTT (7315 JP): SPARX Group’s Tender Offer at JPY812

Despite the modest premium, the offer represents a high five-year share price. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 41.3% minority...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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