'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a>
</div><blockquote><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</blockquote>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.<hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.<ul>
<li>Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.</li>
<li>Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…</li>
</ul>

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation concerns.
Within an industry where pressure to consolidate appears to be growing, we find Kansai Paint's relatively restrained approach to be the least risky. Our view is that cost-synergies are likely to be limited outside of the decorative paints market and are unlikely to be exceedingly large even there.
Buying brands and scale is not in and of itself a negative…


Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with a 10% increase, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a>…

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were Sony Corp (6758 JP) with a 10% increase, Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)…

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

Japan

ISHIHARA SANGYO KAISHA, Ltd. produces and markets a wide range of chemicals products.  The Company's main products include titanium oxide and agrochemicals. Ishihara Sangyo has sales and manufacturing subsidiaries in Asia, the Americas, and Europe.

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Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha (4028 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

Kansai Paint: Emerging Markets Exposure, M&A and Gearing to a South African Recovery

Following up on our previous insight, our discussion with the company lead us to remain positive on the stock despite some valuation...

Mio Kato

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were...

Custom Products Group

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