Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.</li>
<li>With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.</li>
<li>We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.


Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).</li>
<li>We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.</li>
<li>We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.</li>
</ul>


Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.


Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

United States

iShares Russell 2000 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. The ETF holds mid and small-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in the smallest 2000 companies from the Russell 3000 Index. The ETF weights the holdings by market capitalization and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM US)

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

4100 is clear resistance to watch on the $SPX, while support continues to be at 3910; this has been the range for a month. We lean breakdown below...

Vermilion Research

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

Our targets for this bear rally have been hit, which were the 200-day MAs on $IWM and $SPX (within 0.5%). Now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on...

Vermilion Research

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

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