Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Despite the June rally in crude, our text-mined inflation indicators hit record momentum readings in May and decelerated notably since</li>
<li>Much like breakevens, our indicators have moved in greater sympathy/correlation with lumber than crude recently</li>
<li>Labor shortages remain an overhang and potential driver of wage inflation, but coverage of the topic has lost momentum in recent weeks</li>
<li>Text-mined inflation indicators (and breakevens) have been strongly correlated with our Cyclicals vs. Defensives Diffusion indicator; while relative cyclical sentiment has broken down, short-term data suggests the underperformance of cyclicals may be short-lived</li>
<li>Despite deceleration from extreme levels, sequential momentum in our inflation indicators remains positive; breakevens have already narrowed significantly to reflect "transitory" views, only to be challenged by the recent FOMC</li>
<li>While our text-mined indicators reflect the visible pullback in non-energy commodities in recent weeks, we acknowledge the high likelihood of sustained service inflation (in lodging and airfares, for example) in the coming months as well as first signs of acceleration in Owners' Equivalent Rent seen in the May CPI</li>
<li>Even as some supply chain disruptions have eased, imminent passing of an infrastructure bill and a -30bps narrowing in 5yr TIPS breakevens suggest inflation expectations are at risk of resurgence together with the cyclical/value factor following FOMC turmoil</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Despite the June rally in crude, our text-mined inflation indicators hit record momentum readings in May and decelerated notably since
Much like breakevens, our indicators have moved in greater sympathy/correlation with lumber than crude recently
Labor shortages remain an overhang and potential driver of wage inflation, but coverage of the topic has lost momentum in recent weeks
Text-mined inflation indicators (and breakevens) have been strongly correlated with our Cyclicals vs. Defensives Diffusion indicator; while relative cyclical sentiment has broken down, short-term data suggests the underperformance of cyclicals may be short-lived
Despite deceleration from extreme levels, sequential momentum in our inflation indicators remains positive; breakevens have already narrowed significantly to reflect "transitory" views, only to be challenged by the recent FOMC
While our text-mined indicators reflect the visible pullback in non-energy commodities in recent weeks, we acknowledge the high likelihood of sustained service inflation (in lodging and airfares, for example) in the coming months as well as first signs of acceleration in Owners' Equivalent Rent seen in the May CPI
Even as some supply chain disruptions have eased, imminent passing of an infrastructure bill and a -30bps narrowing in 5yr TIPS breakevens suggest inflation expectations are at risk of resurgence together with the cyclical/value factor following FOMC turmoil
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Text-Mined Inflation Indicators Peaked in May, But Odds of Resurgence Are High

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration with the following implications for other asset classes:•         Bullish for growth stocks over value stocks;•         Expect a pause in the cyclical and reflation trade, which is highly correlated to value;•         USD bearish; and•         Gold bullish.

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration with the following implications for other asset classes:•         Bullish for growth stocks over value stocks;•         Expect a pause in the cyclical and reflation trade, which is highly correlated to value;•         USD bearish; and•         Gold bullish.

The S&amp;P 500 is recovering from an oversold position, but sufficient technical damage has been inflicted to cast doubt that it can stage a V-shaped recovery. Look for a retest of the previous lows in the coming weeks and watch for signs of capitulation and positive technical divergences as signals of a possible tradable bottom. Otherwise, watch for the VIX Index to decisively fall below its 20 dma, which would translate to a bullish outlook for equities.

The S&amp;P 500 is recovering from an oversold position, but sufficient technical damage has been inflicted to cast doubt that it can stage a V-shaped recovery. Look for a retest of the previous lows in the coming weeks and watch for signs of capitulation and positive technical divergences as signals of a possible tradable bottom. Otherwise, watch for the VIX Index to decisively fall below its 20 dma, which would translate to a bullish outlook for equities.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

We normally only give seasonality secondary consideration in our analysis. But April is the most bullish month of the year for the S&amp;P 500 in the last 20 years and positive 80% of the time. Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the stock market should grind higher for the remainder of the month.We conclude from our analysis that the market can continue to rise in April. A healthy internal rotation has occurred that has relieved the pressure of overbought excesses. Several potential opportunities have arisen as a result of the market rotation:<ul>
<li>A opportunity to lighten up on growth stocks;</li>
<li>A opportunity to buy into value stocks;</li>
<li>A bond market rally; and</li>
<li>A possible bullish set-up for gold and gold stocks.</li>
</ul>

We normally only give seasonality secondary consideration in our analysis. But April is the most bullish month of the year for the S&amp;P 500 in the last 20 years and positive 80% of the time. Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the stock market should grind higher for the remainder of the month.We conclude from our analysis that the market can continue to rise in April. A healthy internal rotation has occurred that has relieved the pressure of overbought excesses. Several potential opportunities have arisen as a result of the market rotation:
A opportunity to lighten up on growth stocks;
A opportunity to buy into value stocks;
A bond market rally; and
A possible bullish set-up for gold and gold stocks.


Internal Rotation + Seasonality = Higher S&P 500

United States

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the Russell 1000 Value Index. The ETF holds mid and large-cap U.S. stocks. Its investments are in companies that are thought to be undervalued by the market. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances annually.

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iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD US)

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mined Inflation Indicators Peaked in May, But Odds of Resurgence Are High

Our text-mined inflation indicators pulled back on early signs of supply chain normalization along with BEs, but we see scope for resurgence in...

Elan Gore

Poised For A Bond Market Rally

The market is setting up for a bond market rally based on macro, technical analysis and sentiment perspectives of unknown magnitude and duration...

Cam Hui

Where's the Fear?

The S&P 500 is recovering from an oversold position, but sufficient technical damage has been inflicted to cast doubt that it can stage a V-shaped...

Cam Hui

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

Internal Rotation + Seasonality = Higher S&P 500

Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the U.S. stock market should grind higher...

Cam Hui

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