Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We expect a weak 2Q15 on the back of a decelerating economy buffeted by myriad headwinds. Industrial production, exports and the labour market have been lacklustre.</li><li>Singapore&rsquo;s external trade figures are worrying, and could point to a structural loss of competitiveness, with a possible relocation of activity. The downturn in trade consequently means that manufacturing and wholesale trade are adversely affected.</li><li>The sectoral weaknesses in wholesale and retail trade, real estate and financial services means that approximately 40% of overall GDP is facing potential contractions.</li><li>However, some positives are emerging: the fortunes of the G3 economies are looking up, government spending is expected to be elevated and a recent report reflected the enduring attractiveness of Singapore as an investment destination.</li></ul>

We expect a weak 2Q15 on the back of a decelerating economy buffeted by myriad headwinds. Industrial production, exports and the labour market have been lacklustre.Singapore&rsquo;s external trade figures are worrying, and could point to a structural loss of competitiveness, with a possible relocation of activity. The downturn in trade consequently means that manufacturing and wholesale trade are adversely affected.The sectoral weaknesses in wholesale and retail trade, real estate and financial services means that approximately 40% of overall GDP is facing potential contractions.However, some positives are emerging: the fortunes of the G3 economies are looking up, government spending is expected to be elevated and a recent report reflected the enduring attractiveness of Singapore as an investment destination.

Singapore: Clear signs of economic deceleration

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based model<ul><li>China is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively.</li><li>The Philippines is behind the curve and needs to tighten.</li><li>India and Malaysia are ahead of the curve and need not hurry to ease in our view.</li><li>In general, an easing bias is likely in Asian monetary policy.</li></ul>

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based modelChina is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively.The Philippines is behind the curve and needs to tighten.India and Malaysia are ahead of the curve and need not hurry to ease in our view.In general, an easing bias is likely in Asian monetary policy.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Move Along, No Problems Here: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SG) [DBS] participated in a competitor conference on January 10, 2022, suggesting that not an ounce of risk is on balance sheet; </li>
<li>
Digital Franchise: Management also focused on digital initiatives, including: DBS Digital Exchange; Digital Custody; and the Partior platform; and</li>
<li>
Deal Risk Remains High: There was no discussion by management of its headlong buying spree of some fairly spicy transactions. And they are not done.</li>
</ul>



Move Along, No Problems Here: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SG) [DBS] participated in a competitor conference on January 10, 2022, suggesting that not an ounce of risk is on balance sheet; 

Digital Franchise: Management also focused on digital initiatives, including: DBS Digital Exchange; Digital Custody; and the Partior platform; and

Deal Risk Remains High: There was no discussion by management of its headlong buying spree of some fairly spicy transactions. And they are not done.


*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

<ul>
<li>
A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; </li>
<li>
Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and </li>
<li>
Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.</li>
</ul>



A50 Challenges:Hong Kong Exchange &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEx] launched the MSCI China A50 Connect (HK A50). This new product competes with 20% of Singapore Exchange’s (SGX.SP) [SGX] PBT; 

Completely Distracted: On top of weaker equity volumes/fees and the HK A50 launch, SGX has made numerous moves which are more of a distraction than they're worth; and 

Time For Massive Strategic Move: SGX must consider significant strategic alternatives if it is to avoid being hollowed out over the longer-term.


United States

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Singaporean market, as measured by the MSCI Singapore 25/50 Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique. SGX Trading Name: IS MSCI SIN 100US$

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS US)

Singapore: Clear signs of economic deceleration

We expect a weak 2Q15 on the back of a decelerating economy buffeted by myriad headwinds. Industrial production, exports and the labour market...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Monetary Policy Outlook

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based model China is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively. The...

Manu Bhaskaran

DBS Group Holdings – Lots of Lipstick

DBS: DBS participated in a competitor conference, suggesting not an ounce of risk sits on balance sheet. There was no discussion of its headlong...

Thomas J. Monaco

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange - Ringing Hollow

SGX: A50 Challenges: HKEx launched the MSCI China A50 Connect, which directly competes with 20% of SGX' PBT. A recent competitor event revealed...

Thomas J. Monaco