Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The Philippines: rebounding but sustained growth hinges on next year&rsquo;s elections<ul><li>GDP growth improved modestly in 3Q15 to 6.0% y/y from 5.8% y/y in 2Q15. Private consumption was resilient while government spending momentum was instrumental invigorating the economy.</li><li>China's slowdown and the El Nino effect remain the main risks. However recovery in the G3 economies is starting to bear fruit for the Philippines.</li><li>Sustained growth over the longer term hinges on further reforms to improve the business environment and raise the investment rate. Thus the outcome of the 2016 presidential election has crucial implications for the economy.</li></ul>

The Philippines: rebounding but sustained growth hinges on next year&rsquo;s electionsGDP growth improved modestly in 3Q15 to 6.0% y/y from 5.8% y/y in 2Q15. Private consumption was resilient while government spending momentum was instrumental invigorating the economy.China's slowdown and the El Nino effect remain the main risks. However recovery in the G3 economies is starting to bear fruit for the Philippines.Sustained growth over the longer term hinges on further reforms to improve the business environment and raise the investment rate. Thus the outcome of the 2016 presidential election has crucial implications for the economy.

Philippines: Strong Growth Hinges on Political Outcomes

<ul><li>The eventual US Federal Reserve Bank rate increase is not necessarily bad as it will is anything, end the uncertainty over timing and trajectory of monetary normalisation.&nbsp;</li><li>Also, we believe that the damage that a Chinese slowdown will inflict on Southeast Asian economies is overstated.</li><li>Thus, after&nbsp;analysing the key drivers of growth, we believe that there is an upside to Southeast Asian growth prospects: it would be a mistake to turn more pessimistic now.</li></ul>

The eventual US Federal Reserve Bank rate increase is not necessarily bad as it will is anything, end the uncertainty over timing and trajectory of monetary normalisation.&nbsp;Also, we believe that the damage that a Chinese slowdown will inflict on Southeast Asian economies is overstated.Thus, after&nbsp;analysing the key drivers of growth, we believe that there is an upside to Southeast Asian growth prospects: it would be a mistake to turn more pessimistic now.

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based model<ul><li>China is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively.</li><li>The Philippines is behind the curve and needs to tighten.</li><li>India and Malaysia are ahead of the curve and need not hurry to ease in our view.</li><li>In general, an easing bias is likely in Asian monetary policy.</li></ul>

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based modelChina is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively.The Philippines is behind the curve and needs to tighten.India and Malaysia are ahead of the curve and need not hurry to ease in our view.In general, an easing bias is likely in Asian monetary policy.

United States

iShares MSCI Philippines ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Philippines (EPHE US)

Philippines: Strong Growth Hinges on Political Outcomes

The Philippines: rebounding but sustained growth hinges on next year’s elections GDP growth improved modestly in 3Q15 to 6.0% y/y from 5.8% y/y in...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian growth prospects

The eventual US Federal Reserve Bank rate increase is not necessarily bad as it will is anything, end the uncertainty over timing and trajectory...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Monetary Policy Outlook

Asian monetary policy outlook: results of our Taylor Rule-based model China is behind the curve and needs to ease more aggressively. The...

Manu Bhaskaran