Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>
Economy expanded at the fastest rate in three years: GDP accelerated to 7.1% y/y in 3Q16 from 7.0% in 2Q16, powered by strong consumption (up 7.3% from 7.4% in 2Q16) and booming investment (up 23.5%, down slightly from 2Q16’s 24.6%).</li>
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Remittances are buoyant: Cash remittances totalled USD2.38bn in Sep 16 and were at the highest level yet in 2016. Remittances grew 6.7% y/y in Sep 16, down from 16.3% gain in Aug 16. However, the outsized figure in Aug 16 was attributed to base effects.</li>
</ul>Assessment:…



Economy expanded at the fastest rate in three years: GDP accelerated to 7.1% y/y in 3Q16 from 7.0% in 2Q16, powered by strong consumption (up 7.3% from 7.4% in 2Q16) and booming investment (up 23.5%, down slightly from 2Q16’s 24.6%).

Remittances are buoyant: Cash remittances totalled USD2.38bn in Sep 16 and were at the highest level yet in 2016. Remittances grew 6.7% y/y in Sep 16, down from 16.3% gain in Aug 16. However, the outsized figure in Aug 16 was attributed to base effects.
Assessment:…

Philippines: Robust Domestic Demand Drives Growth Higher, but Watch for External Risks

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth:Gathering recovery in global demand: The global economy is gaining momentum, and showing signs of rising trade intensity that will boost external demand for Asian exporters. Furthermore, the easing of deflationary pressures is helping trade values to recover. A sustained recovery in global demand for Asian exports would be…

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth:Gathering recovery in global demand: The global economy is gaining momentum, and showing signs of rising trade intensity that will boost external demand for Asian exporters. Furthermore, the easing of deflationary pressures is helping trade values to recover. A sustained recovery in global demand for Asian exports would be…

How Have Risks for Asia Changed Recently?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetisation:20% High-Value Notes May Be Destroyed, a Hit of 1-2% of GDP; Move a Long-Run Positive

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

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Closer Sino-Malaysian ties: Malaysian Prime Minister Najib forged closer ties with China on his visit to Beijing, concluding the purchase of naval vessels from China and awarding the contract for the USD13.1bn East Coast Railway Line to China. China would have been mightily pleased with the joint statement that Malaysia agreed to issue, which called for restraint in the South China Sea and spoke against external intervention that would obstruct the resolution of maritime disputes.</li>
<li>Coming soon…</li>
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Closer Sino-Malaysian ties: Malaysian Prime Minister Najib forged closer ties with China on his visit to Beijing, concluding the purchase of naval vessels from China and awarding the contract for the USD13.1bn East Coast Railway Line to China. China would have been mightily pleased with the joint statement that Malaysia agreed to issue, which called for restraint in the South China Sea and spoke against external intervention that would obstruct the resolution of maritime disputes.
Coming soon…


China – US Competition: Posturing to Increase in Asia-Pacific

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

In mid-2015, the Philippines had twin surpluses, which helped pave the path toward 6.9% YoY real GDP growth in 1H 2016 (the fastest among ASEAN's six largest economies). The latter, however, was made possible by a dose of fiscal stimulus in the final half-year of Noynoy Aquino's presidential term. In the 12 months to August 2016, the Philippines had a fiscal deficit of PHP256bn (1.8% of GDP), and this in turn tipped the BoP current account into a deficit, as strong imports hugely widened the…

In mid-2015, the Philippines had twin surpluses, which helped pave the path toward 6.9% YoY real GDP growth in 1H 2016 (the fastest among ASEAN's six largest economies). The latter, however, was made possible by a dose of fiscal stimulus in the final half-year of Noynoy Aquino's presidential term. In the 12 months to August 2016, the Philippines had a fiscal deficit of PHP256bn (1.8% of GDP), and this in turn tipped the BoP current account into a deficit, as strong imports hugely widened the…

Emerging Cyclical Challenges Complement Personality Issues

United States

iShares MSCI Philippines ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Philippines (EPHE US)

Philippines: Robust Domestic Demand Drives Growth Higher, but Watch for External Risks

Economy expanded at the fastest rate in three years: GDP accelerated to 7.1% y/y in 3Q16 from 7.0% in 2Q16, powered by strong consumption (up...

Asees Bajaj

How Have Risks for Asia Changed Recently?

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook...