FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The rise in JPY is highlighting global risk aversion that may persist for several months.  A key contributing factor may be increasing fear leading up to the Brexit vote, removing EUR as a potential save haven.  While Japan may threaten intervention to prevent excessive and rapid moves in the JPY, few see this policy being used to draw a line in the sand.  A strong JPY may induce more aggressive policy easing by the BoJ later this month, placing further downward pressure on global yields.  The market will continue to doubt the Fed will hike rates even if its economy performs well in light of heightened global uncertainty. Low yields may tend to underpin global asset markets but choppy and directionless trading appears likely. The skittishness of global markets may increase volatility and make it difficult to trade with conviction on fundamental developments, perhaps leading to surprising and counterintuitive moves, including a deeper fall in USD/JPY.  In this environment we continue to see a case for long gold positions.

The rise in JPY is highlighting global risk aversion that may persist for several months.  A key contributing factor may be increasing fear leading up to the Brexit vote, removing EUR as a potential save haven.  While Japan may threaten intervention to prevent excessive and rapid moves in the JPY, few see this policy being used to draw a line in the sand.  A strong JPY may induce more aggressive policy easing by the BoJ later this month, placing further downward pressure on global yields.  The market will continue to doubt the Fed will hike rates even if its economy performs well in light of heightened global uncertainty. Low yields may tend to underpin global asset markets but choppy and directionless trading appears likely. The skittishness of global markets may increase volatility and make it difficult to trade with conviction on fundamental developments, perhaps leading to surprising and counterintuitive moves, including a deeper fall in USD/JPY.  In this environment we continue to see a case for long gold positions.

AmpGFX - JPY Strength Adds to Global Uncertainty and the Case for Gold

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul>
<li>Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to Taiwan and a group of disputed islands.</li>
<li>Japan is also planning to strengthen its military presence in the East China Sea by increasing its Self-Defense Force to almost 10,000 personnel and installing missile batteries that will enable Japan to employ a defensive curtain along the disputed islands.</li>
</ul>Implications: Another sign of opposition to Chinese…


Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to Taiwan and a group of disputed islands.
Japan is also planning to strengthen its military presence in the East China Sea by increasing its Self-Defense Force to almost 10,000 personnel and installing missile batteries that will enable Japan to employ a defensive curtain along the disputed islands.
Implications: Another sign of opposition to Chinese…

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and Eurozone assets have lagged behind and indeed their bank stocks have sagged.  The rise in US assets is supported by resilience in US economic data, a dovish turn by the Fed and a weaker USD.  Stronger EM assets have been supported by a recovery in oil and other commodity prices, policy easing by China, Europe, and Japan, a dovish Fed, and improved outlook for Chinese growth, currency and asset markets. Weaker growth indicators in Japan, weaker inflation expectations in Europe, weaker bank equites, and overall sluggish equity performances suggest policymakers will work hard to prevent further strength in EUR and JPY.  It is hard to get behind the further rally in these currencies.  If risk aversion returns they may rise, but even then these gains are likely to be limited and gold should be favored as the alternative safe haven.  The outlook for EM assets is now more balanced after investors have piled back in over the last month.  The recent down-turn in oil prices may return as a dampening influence on EM assets and currencies. Investors may also start to consider the Fed coming back into play by mid-year.

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery<ul>
<li>First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness.</li>
<li>Second, exports remain under pressure - falling 4% y/y in Feb 16. While this was better than the 12.9% contraction in January, the data was flattered by distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year.</li>
<li>Third, the initial soundings for wage increases this spring do not look promising, with the large companies sharply reducing the quantum of wage rises compared to last year - a discouraging…</li>
</ul>

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery
First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness.
Second, exports remain under pressure - falling 4% y/y in Feb 16. While this was better than the 12.9% contraction in January, the data was flattered by distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year.
Third, the initial soundings for wage increases this spring do not look promising, with the large companies sharply reducing the quantum of wage rises compared to last year - a discouraging…


Japan: Economy Languishing, Monetary Policy Questioned

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 <div>Asia FX action</div>To view click on this link:  <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.<div>
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

Japan

iShares MSCI Japan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Japanese market, as measured by the MSCI Japan Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks in a variety of sectors using a market cap weighted "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ US)

AmpGFX - JPY Strength Adds to Global Uncertainty and the Case for Gold

The rise in JPY is highlighting global risk aversion that may persist for several months. A key contributing factor may be increasing fear leading...

Greg Gibbs

Tensions in the East China Sea

Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to...

Asees Bajaj

AmpGFX - Warning Signs for EUR and JPY, EM Rally Mature, Gold May Be Poised for Renewed Strength

The recent rebound in global assets has been driven by emerging market and USA assets, while other developed markets, particularly Japanese and...

Greg Gibbs

Japan: Economy Languishing, Monetary Policy Questioned

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness. Second, exports remain under pressure -...

Jason Tan

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder