Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

India's merchandise exports grew 9.6% YoY in October 2016, adding to the previous month's momentum (+4.6% YoY  in Sept '16). Non-oil exports were especially robust in October 2016, growing 9.9% YoY (in US$ terms, or 12.8% YoY in rupee terms). Although we expect India's real GDP to accelerate to over 8% YoY growth in 2017 driven primarily by private consumption (boosted by stronger farm incomes and higher urban wages after the decadal increase in government pay in 2H 2016), the acceleration in…

India's merchandise exports grew 9.6% YoY in October 2016, adding to the previous month's momentum (+4.6% YoY  in Sept '16). Non-oil exports were especially robust in October 2016, growing 9.9% YoY (in US$ terms, or 12.8% YoY in rupee terms). Although we expect India's real GDP to accelerate to over 8% YoY growth in 2017 driven primarily by private consumption (boosted by stronger farm incomes and higher urban wages after the decadal increase in government pay in 2H 2016), the acceleration in…

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

<blockquote class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-enabled ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right">Only Governments can take perfectly good paper cover it in perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless - Milton Friedman </blockquote>The highest denomination Rupee note was the Rs1,000 (Just USD15). The most valuable Rupee notes however, are those that have been taken out of circulation and ceased to be legal tender long ago. Only then does antiquity bestow upon the paper a value in the mind of the holder that makes it a store of value. As the chart below shows, measured against the US Dollar, the…

Only Governments can take perfectly good paper cover it in perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless - Milton Friedman The highest denomination Rupee note was the Rs1,000 (Just USD15). The most valuable Rupee notes however, are those that have been taken out of circulation and ceased to be legal tender long ago. Only then does antiquity bestow upon the paper a value in the mind of the holder that makes it a store of value. As the chart below shows, measured against the US Dollar, the…

Money Matters: The Rupee and the Black-Market-  An Own Goal?

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul><li>
Surprise de-monetisation move to combat corruption: In a surprise announcement on 8 Nov, PM Modi declared that INR500 and INR1000 notes would immediately cease to be legal tender. The RBI will issue new INR500 and INR2000 notes as substitutes. The bold move is directed at removing black money from circulation, destroying the wealth of corrupt officials and black marketeers.</li></ul>Assessment: Slower short-term growth but positive for long term<ul><li>The remarkable secrecy with which this demonetization was…</li></ul>


Surprise de-monetisation move to combat corruption: In a surprise announcement on 8 Nov, PM Modi declared that INR500 and INR1000 notes would immediately cease to be legal tender. The RBI will issue new INR500 and INR2000 notes as substitutes. The bold move is directed at removing black money from circulation, destroying the wealth of corrupt officials and black marketeers.Assessment: Slower short-term growth but positive for long termThe remarkable secrecy with which this demonetization was…

India: Modi Launches "surgical Strike" on Black Economy

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetisation:20% High-Value Notes May Be Destroyed, a Hit of 1-2% of GDP; Move a Long-Run Positive

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul>
<li>
Business sentiment is optimistic, but credit is an issue: According to the latest Ficci Business Confidence Survey, the Overall Business Confidence Index rose to a six-quarter high of 67.3, up from 62.8 in the previous survey.</li>
<li>However, 54% of survey participants reported that the cost of credit was prohibitive, up from 46% in the previous survey. 29% of participants reported that availability of credit was an issue, up from 24% in the previous survey.</li>
<li>
S&amp;P opts to keep India’s credit rating for the…</li>
</ul>



Business sentiment is optimistic, but credit is an issue: According to the latest Ficci Business Confidence Survey, the Overall Business Confidence Index rose to a six-quarter high of 67.3, up from 62.8 in the previous survey.
However, 54% of survey participants reported that the cost of credit was prohibitive, up from 46% in the previous survey. 29% of participants reported that availability of credit was an issue, up from 24% in the previous survey.

S&amp;P opts to keep India’s credit rating for the…


India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: Export Champion!

India's merchandise exports grew 9.6% YoY in October 2016, adding to the previous month's momentum (+4.6% YoY in Sept '16). Non-oil exports were...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Money Matters: The Rupee and the Black-Market- An Own Goal?

Only Governments can take perfectly good paper cover it in perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless - Milton Friedman The highest...

Stewart Paterson

India: Modi Launches "surgical Strike" on Black Economy

Surprise de-monetisation move to combat corruption: In a surprise announcement on 8 Nov, PM Modi declared that INR500 and INR1000 notes would...

Manu Bhaskaran

Demonetisation:20% High-Value Notes May Be Destroyed, a Hit of 1-2% of GDP; Move a Long-Run Positive

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash...

Asia Advisors

India: RBI Faces a Tough Balancing Act

Business sentiment is optimistic, but credit is an issue: According to the latest Ficci Business Confidence Survey, the Overall Business...

Jason Tan