Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.</li>
<li>Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  </li>
<li>Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI rose 1.33%MoM in Jun'24, because of a 3.17%MoM spike in food CPI. Consequently, headline CPI rose 5.08%YoY, driven by food inflation of 9.36%YoY.
Although core inflation was at 3.1%YoY in May-Jun'24, India targets headline inflation, not core. Vegetable inflation (+29.3%YoY) remained the main culprit pushing up headline inflation. Fiscal solutions will take time.  
Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay close to 5%YoY in Jul-Sep'24 (vs earlier expectations of it abating below 4%YoY). The first rate cut is therefore unlikely before Dec'24. 


India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

<ul>
<li>11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. </li>
<li>Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.</li>
</ul>


11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. 
Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.


India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Premier Energies Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-energies-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42190:1" rel="noopener">Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. </li>
<li>It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. 
It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&amp;M) services. 
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

<ul>
<li>Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. </li>
<li>In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.</li>
<li>With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. </li>
</ul>


Goods export growth of 4.6%YoY was outpaced by import growth of 7.8%YoY (Apr-Jun'24), widening the merchandise deficit by 13.5%YoY. This was partly offset by the Apr-May24 services surplus widening 16.5%YoY. 
In Q4FY24 (Jan-Mar'24), India had a current account surplus (0.6% of GDP) as the merchandise deficit of USD50.3bn was offset by a USD42.7bn services surplus and USD13.9bn incomes surplus.
With oil prices remaining subdued (USD75-90/bbl), goods exports and the services surplus expanding, India is likely to report a current account surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25. 


India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. </li>
<li>The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  </li>
<li>Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. </li>
</ul>


Despite more than doubling in the past 4 years, the BSE-Sensex is fairly valued (trailing P/E of 24.04x) relative to its 10-year mean (23.93x)-- helped by sustained EPS growth. 
The trailing P/E is above the 20-year (21.34x) and 30-year mean (20.4x), but those reflect weaker growth prospects in earlier decades. 10yr mean better reflects new normal 8% RGDP growth.  
Net FPI inflows reached a record USD10.14bn in Dec'23, when the market was similarly valued. FPI flows into equity were minimal in H1CY24, but likely to rebound. Stay moderately Overweight. 


India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Inflation Setback in June Pushes Out Prospect of Rate Cuts to Later in the Year

​Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Premier Energies Pre-IPO - Still Ramping up but Already Profitable

Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. It is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV)...

Ethan Aw

India: External Sector in Robust Health with Current Account Surplus Likely in FY25

​India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Growth Ensures that the Market Is Not Too Expensive Despite Big 4yr Runup

​Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Headline CPI rose to 5.08%YoY in Jun'24 due to food inflation (9.36%YoY). Despite the high base from Jul-Aug'23, CPI inflation will be near 5%YoY...

India's current account swung to surplus in Q4FY24, with merchandise deficit offset by services & incomes surpluses, likely to continue in FY25...

Sensex trailing P/E of 24.04x is near 10yr mean of 23.93x, reflecting sustained EPS growth. Net FPI inflows hit a record USD10bn in Dec'23, when...