Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

News related to Deutsche Bank turned around what was a developing risk positive trend in global markets and currencies this week.  A stronger oil price helped weaken the JPY and strengthen energy producers, more broadly boosting risk appetite.  We are not convinced problems at Deutsche bank will have a sustained negative impact on global markets, and would prefer to fade the risk-off mood on Thursday.  However, as we approach month-end and key US inflation data on Friday, patience is advised.  Sentiment is likely to remain fragile in the lead-up to the US election and a probable rate hike by the Fed in December.  Low global bond yields have tended to undermine bank equities and expose problems at the weakest banks.  This issue has been felt most in Europe where the ECB is pursuing a negative interest rate policy and its QE program has flattened the yield curve.  Japan faces similar problems and the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control to help support its financial sector, but yields remain low and Japanese bank shares have failed to recover much.  However, low yields have more broadly helped lift global asset markets; particularly those in emerging markets. As discussed earlier in the week, commodity prices are firming and may reflect a strengthening global economy albeit from a modest growth rate.  We may see more evidence of this in PMI data that are coming out today in many countries.

News related to Deutsche Bank turned around what was a developing risk positive trend in global markets and currencies this week.  A stronger oil price helped weaken the JPY and strengthen energy producers, more broadly boosting risk appetite.  We are not convinced problems at Deutsche bank will have a sustained negative impact on global markets, and would prefer to fade the risk-off mood on Thursday.  However, as we approach month-end and key US inflation data on Friday, patience is advised.  Sentiment is likely to remain fragile in the lead-up to the US election and a probable rate hike by the Fed in December.  Low global bond yields have tended to undermine bank equities and expose problems at the weakest banks.  This issue has been felt most in Europe where the ECB is pursuing a negative interest rate policy and its QE program has flattened the yield curve.  Japan faces similar problems and the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control to help support its financial sector, but yields remain low and Japanese bank shares have failed to recover much.  However, low yields have more broadly helped lift global asset markets; particularly those in emerging markets. As discussed earlier in the week, commodity prices are firming and may reflect a strengthening global economy albeit from a modest growth rate.  We may see more evidence of this in PMI data that are coming out today in many countries. 

AmpGFX - Banks Weak, but Commodities Firming

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&amp;P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week where a cycle turn is due on the 29th or 30th. Given a rise into this timeline we expect a bearish turn from long to short.<div>After a bit of a post-Fed shakeout we remained long for drive upward into late this week where we will reverse from long to short S&amp;P. NDX long from 4,814 and S&amp;P from 2,137.</div>NDX is the upside leading and if the S&amp;P is to clear 2,172…

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&amp;P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week where a cycle turn is due on the 29th or 30th. Given a rise into this timeline we expect a bearish turn from long to short.After a bit of a post-Fed shakeout we remained long for drive upward into late this week where we will reverse from long to short S&amp;P. NDX long from 4,814 and S&amp;P from 2,137.NDX is the upside leading and if the S&amp;P is to clear 2,172…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

90 Days After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow!...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

AmpGFX - Banks Weak, but Commodities Firming

News related to Deutsche Bank turned around what was a developing risk positive trend in global markets and currencies this week. A stronger oil...

Greg Gibbs

Reversing S&P Long to Short

Chartonics flashThursday 29 September 2016NDX and S&P sell levels with action pointsCycles - Base case called for strength into late this week...

Thomas Schroeder

90 Days After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor...

Robert Ciemniak

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA