Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<p>EM Energy allocations are at record lows.  A big exodus in the first half of 2020 pushed allocations to their lowest levels since our records start in 2008.   The aggressive scaling back of positioning had a dramatic effect on prices, with the MSCI EM Energy sector suffering one of the worst 12 month periods of underperformance in nearly 2 decades.  But the ownership picture is beginning to stabilize.  </p><p>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> appears to be the GOAT, with its backing of almost half of the funds in our analysis, well spread across the style spectrum in addition to being a net overweight.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener"> Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> is also a high conviction stock, held by fewer funds than Lukoil but in greater size.  It also represents a significant underweight to many EM investors.  The most depressed stock of the larger holdings is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> , once held by over 60% of the funds in our analysis, now by just 24%.</p><p><em>Analysis taken from our EM research, covering the collective allocations of 242 Global Emerging Market active funds, with combined AUM of $460bn</em></p>

EM Energy allocations are at record lows.  A big exodus in the first half of 2020 pushed allocations to their lowest levels since our records start in 2008.   The aggressive scaling back of positioning had a dramatic effect on prices, with the MSCI EM Energy sector suffering one of the worst 12 month periods of underperformance in nearly 2 decades.  But the ownership picture is beginning to stabilize.  On a stock level, LUKOIL (LKOH RM) appears to be the GOAT, with its backing of almost half of the funds in our analysis, well spread across the style spectrum in addition to being a net overweight.   Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is also a high conviction stock, held by fewer funds than Lukoil but in greater size.  It also represents a significant underweight to many EM investors.  The most depressed stock of the larger holdings is CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) , once held by over 60% of the funds in our analysis, now by just 24%.Analysis taken from our EM research, covering the collective allocations of 242 Global Emerging Market active funds, with combined AUM of $460bn

EM Energy: Big Underperformance - Positioning at Record Lows, but Stabilizing.

<div><p>In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.</p></div><div>
<p>In part 3 of the series, we focus on the Taiwan Information Technology sector:</p>
<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech allocations are at their peak, both in terms of absolute fund weights, relative weights, investment breadth and AUM.</li>
<li>The largest overweight stock position is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> , with an average weight of 6.1%, representing a 0.21% overweight vs benchmark.</li>
<li>The largest underweights are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>
</li>
<li>Profit taking evident in H2 among some managers as Taiwan Tech contributes to outperformance among active managers in 2020.</li>
<li>Foundation of Taiwan Tech investment appears strong, with both Value, Growth and Income funds well exposed.</li>
</ul>
</div><div><p><em>Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn.</em></p></div>

In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.
In part 3 of the series, we focus on the Taiwan Information Technology sector:

Taiwan Tech allocations are at their peak, both in terms of absolute fund weights, relative weights, investment breadth and AUM.
The largest overweight stock position is TSMC (2330 TT) , with an average weight of 6.1%, representing a 0.21% overweight vs benchmark.
The largest underweights are Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317 TT)  and Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)

Profit taking evident in H2 among some managers as Taiwan Tech contributes to outperformance among active managers in 2020.
Foundation of Taiwan Tech investment appears strong, with both Value, Growth and Income funds well exposed.

Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn.

Emerging Market Overweights Series.  Part 3:  Taiwan Tech

<div><p>In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.</p></div><div>
<div><p>In part two of the series, we focus on the Argentinian Consumer Discretionary sector.  We look at current allocations and how they have spiked over the last 12-months, the managers who have been ramping up allocations and how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> has become a dominant out-of-benchmark holding for EM active investors.</p></div>
<div><p><em>Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn.</em></p></div>
</div>

In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.
In part two of the series, we focus on the Argentinian Consumer Discretionary sector.  We look at current allocations and how they have spiked over the last 12-months, the managers who have been ramping up allocations and how MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) has become a dominant out-of-benchmark holding for EM active investors.
Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn.


Emerging Market Overweights Series.  Part 2:  Argentinian Consumer Discretionary

<p>In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.</p><p>In part one of the series, we focus on Indian Financials.  We look at where current allocations sit versus history, drill down to find the most widely held stocks in the sector, the key overweight and the key underweight holdings. </p><p>We find that despite it being the largest overweight holding, Indian Financials exposure is far from excessive, both versus its own history and versus peers.  Furthermore, recent activity points to an increase in exposure among managers.</p><p><em>Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn. </em></p>

In this report, we screen for the largest overweight Country/Sectors across Global EM by analysing the allocations of long-only active Emerging Market funds.In part one of the series, we focus on Indian Financials.  We look at where current allocations sit versus history, drill down to find the most widely held stocks in the sector, the key overweight and the key underweight holdings. We find that despite it being the largest overweight holding, Indian Financials exposure is far from excessive, both versus its own history and versus peers.  Furthermore, recent activity points to an increase in exposure among managers.Our Emerging Market fund universe consists of 242 Global Emerging Market active long-only funds, with combined AUM of $450bn. 

Emerging Market Overweights Series.  Part 1:  Indian Financials

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EM fund ownership in POSCO sits towards the lower end of the 12-year range.  Having suffered something of a 2-year ownership bear market from mid 2018 onwards, activity started to reverse from May of this year.</li>
<li>Previous investors are buying back in to POSCO, though ownership levels remain well off the previous highs.</li>
<li>As the fundamentals start to match up for a growing number of managers, rising ownership has the ability to drive prices higher from here</li>
</ul>


EM fund ownership in POSCO sits towards the lower end of the 12-year range.  Having suffered something of a 2-year ownership bear market from mid 2018 onwards, activity started to reverse from May of this year.
Previous investors are buying back in to POSCO, though ownership levels remain well off the previous highs.
As the fundamentals start to match up for a growing number of managers, rising ownership has the ability to drive prices higher from here


United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

EM Energy: Big Underperformance - Positioning at Record Lows, but Stabilizing.

EM Energy exodus drives worst performance of EM Energy sector in over 15 years. EM active funds are now at their lowest ever exposure to EM Energy...

Steven Holden

Emerging Market Overweights Series. Part 3: Taiwan Tech

Taiwan Technology stocks have seen allocations skyrocket in active EM portfolios. We analyse the drivers behind the move, the key conviction...

Steven Holden

Emerging Market Overweights Series. Part 2: Argentinian Consumer Discretionary

In part two of our EM Overweight series, we focus on the Argentinian Consumer Discretionary sector. We analyse the holding picture in detail,...

Steven Holden

Emerging Market Overweights Series. Part 1: Indian Financials

Emerging Market Overweights Series. Part 1: Indian Financials. Analysing the make-up of the overweight in Indian Financial stocks.

Steven Holden

POSCO: Sentiment Turnaround

EM fund ownership in POSCO is at the lower end of the 12-year range. As the fundamentals start to match up for a growing number of managers,...

Steven Holden