Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

China: Policy confusion amid serious economic troubles<ul><li>The massive stimulus unleashed on the Chinese economy is not working; after a short-lived uptick in Mar 16, data for Apr 16 reflected that the recovery reversed gear. Increasingly, there has been a shift to fiscal policy as monetary easing has been stretched.</li><li>An authoritative figure – believed to be President Xi – has repudiated the policies that Premier Li Keqiang’s Cabinet has been pursuing in the past few months in a commentary carried by the People’s Daily – a sign that political struggles are spilling into economic policymaking.</li><li>This power struggle, as Xi cracks down on the Communist Youth League (CYL) powerbase, adds to policy confusion and uncertainty. The prospects are worrying and the risks ever higher.</li></ul>

China: Policy confusion amid serious economic troublesThe massive stimulus unleashed on the Chinese economy is not working; after a short-lived uptick in Mar 16, data for Apr 16 reflected that the recovery reversed gear. Increasingly, there has been a shift to fiscal policy as monetary easing has been stretched.An authoritative figure – believed to be President Xi – has repudiated the policies that Premier Li Keqiang’s Cabinet has been pursuing in the past few months in a commentary carried by the People’s Daily – a sign that political struggles are spilling into economic policymaking.This power struggle, as Xi cracks down on the Communist Youth League (CYL) powerbase, adds to policy confusion and uncertainty. The prospects are worrying and the risks ever higher.

China: Highest Political and Economic Risks Since 1989

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Australia property is facing a perfect storm of an apartment glut, tight bank lending especially to buyers of apartments when they may be most needed and a close fought national election with property taxation a major policy battle-ground.  It is no longer a matter of whether apartment prices will fall but what will be the fallout to financial stability and the rest of the economy.  Add in a sudden reversal  of fortune for commodity futures prices in China and intense scrutiny over financial stability and policy direction in China and the risks are all lining up for deeper rate cuts by the RBA and steeper fall in the already wounded AUD.  The NZD looks more stable given rapid immigration underpinning its property market.  But its central bank is preparing more macroprudential measures and a weaker AUD and lower RBA cash rates are likely to pressure the RBNZ towards more rapid action.

Australia property is facing a perfect storm of an apartment glut, tight bank lending especially to buyers of apartments when they may be most needed and a close fought national election with property taxation a major policy battle-ground.  It is no longer a matter of whether apartment prices will fall but what will be the fallout to financial stability and the rest of the economy.  Add in a sudden reversal  of fortune for commodity futures prices in China and intense scrutiny over financial stability and policy direction in China and the risks are all lining up for deeper rate cuts by the RBA and steeper fall in the already wounded AUD.  The NZD looks more stable given rapid immigration underpinning its property market.  But its central bank is preparing more macroprudential measures and a weaker AUD and lower RBA cash rates are likely to pressure the RBNZ towards more rapid action.

AmpGFX - AUD and Australian Property Facing a Perfect Storm

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>
Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…</li></ul>


Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

China: Highest Political and Economic Risks Since 1989

China: Policy confusion amid serious economic troubles The massive stimulus unleashed on the Chinese economy is not working; after a short-lived...

Manu Bhaskaran

AmpGFX - AUD and Australian Property Facing a Perfect Storm

Australia property is facing a perfect storm of an apartment glut, tight bank lending especially to buyers of apartments when they may be most...

Greg Gibbs

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At...

Emad Mostaque

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that...

Jason Tan