Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.</li><li>To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of the calendar, it’s once again time for our monthly assessment of the current and upcoming macroeconomic circumstances.To carry out this evaluation, we utilize two critical tools: our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.These integrated resources enable us to establish a portfolio allocation that is empirically supported, taking into account the prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the driving factors within financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up.</li><li>We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few! In a surprisingly self-assured and bold move, Venezuela moved troops close to the Guyanan province of Essequibo, seemingly preparing for a full-scale invasion.</li><li>Guyana has been the center of attention for the oil business in recent years after the discovery of significant oil reserves in the Essequibo province.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up.We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few! In a surprisingly self-assured and bold move, Venezuela moved troops close to the Guyanan province of Essequibo, seemingly preparing for a full-scale invasion.Guyana has been the center of attention for the oil business in recent years after the discovery of significant oil reserves in the Essequibo province.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?</li><li>US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.</li><li>Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Brazil

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund in the USA. The ETF's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ US)

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: What Technically Rising Liquidity Means for Your Portfolio

For December, we see rising liquidity due to rallying treasuries and rising SOFR-Fed futures spreads, consequently depleting the ON RRP faster than...

Steno Research

Great Game – War over Oil… In LatAm?

Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up. We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few!Venezuela moving to...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Steno Research

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research