Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

<ul>
<li>Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. </li>
<li>These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.</li>
<li>Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.</li>
</ul>


Commodities (ex. precious metals) and global yields are on the rise as the US dollar (DXY) deteriorates. Additionally, EM equities (EEM-US) display a bullish RS reversal relative to MSCI ACWI. 
These are all important risk-on signals for global equities that continue to support our neutral yet constructive outlook. We expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a shift in favor of value.


Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.</li>
<li>Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics have mildly deteriorated in recent weeks on concerns over less accommodative monetary policy and the Omicron variant.
Despite recent deterioration, critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes, and our global outlook remains neutral as we continue to expect more consolidation and mixed markets.
Growth continues to outperform relative to value. Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

United States

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI All Country World Index and holds over 1200 equities in developed and emerging markets. The ETF weights its holdings using a representative sampling indexing strategy, generally investing at least 90% of its assets in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research

Value Sectors Take The Lead On Rising Global Yields; Buying Energy and Financials

Two Sectors that stand to benefit most from rising rates include Energy and Financials. We recommend adding exposure to these Sectors as we see a...

Vermilion Research

Add To Growth On This Pullback; Actionable Themes: Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary

Growth continues to outperform relative to value, shown by the intact uptrend on the MSCI ACWI ex-US Growth vs. Value ratio. We highlight...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research