Roaring Labour Market Despite Renewed Signs of Broad-Based Weakness in ISM
The first two data points for April 2019 were contradictory -- with a powerful surge in non-farm payrolls (263,000 net new jobs, far ahead of...
356 Views
Trade War Returns, After a 4-Month Hiatus of Complacent Optimism
President Trump has threatened to raise the 10% tariffs on US$200bn of imports from China (imposed on 24 September 2018) to 25% by Friday (May...
481 Views
Democrats' Decision Not to Impeach Will Likely Deliver an Electoral Sweep in 2020
The end of the Special Counsel Bob Mueller's investigation into links (and possible collusion) between Russia and the Trump administration/campaign...
566 Views
US 5Y-1Y Yield Curve Inverts, but 10Y-2Y Suggests US Will Narrowly Avert 2020 Recession
The 5Y-1Y section of the US yield curve inverted sharply last week (aided by Friday's weak NFP release), with the 5-year yield 11bp below the...
259 Views
Seismic Shift in Fed's View Driven by Anaemic M2, Implying US$-Weakness and an EM-Positive Year
Fed chairman Jay Powell's extraordinary flip-flops over the past 3 months have left his communication strategy in tatters (unsurprising, given that...
605 Views