Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China’s recent stabilisation remains fragile. Financial indicators are flashing warnings; weak private investment is hurting growth prospects and inflation expectations are rising which could spur capital outflows and a weaker Yuan. China is also faced with the threat of being labelled as a currency manipulator by the incoming Trump administration. Finally, housing prices are frothy and increasingly unaffordable.</li><li>Our baseline scenario remains one of episodic crises which are containable by policymaking. However, the risk of a downward spiral sparked by financial stresses has grown.</li></ul>

China’s recent stabilisation remains fragile. Financial indicators are flashing warnings; weak private investment is hurting growth prospects and inflation expectations are rising which could spur capital outflows and a weaker Yuan. China is also faced with the threat of being labelled as a currency manipulator by the incoming Trump administration. Finally, housing prices are frothy and increasingly unaffordable.Our baseline scenario remains one of episodic crises which are containable by policymaking. However, the risk of a downward spiral sparked by financial stresses has grown.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth:Gathering recovery in global demand: The global economy is gaining momentum, and showing signs of rising trade intensity that will boost external demand for Asian exporters. Furthermore, the easing of deflationary pressures is helping trade values to recover. A sustained recovery in global demand for Asian exports would be…

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth:Gathering recovery in global demand: The global economy is gaining momentum, and showing signs of rising trade intensity that will boost external demand for Asian exporters. Furthermore, the easing of deflationary pressures is helping trade values to recover. A sustained recovery in global demand for Asian exports would be…

How Have Risks for Asia Changed Recently?

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Going into US elections Hilary was expected to win. It just goes to show you that when there is a possibility that something happens (no matter how remote the possibility is) it still can happen.   PredictWise was indicating ahead of the election that there was a 15% chance of a Trump win… and it happened. Many investors were not positioned for this outcome.In line with our expectations the surprise Presidential election of Trump has shocked many financial markets around the world. Emerging…

Going into US elections Hilary was expected to win. It just goes to show you that when there is a possibility that something happens (no matter how remote the possibility is) it still can happen.   PredictWise was indicating ahead of the election that there was a 15% chance of a Trump win… and it happened. Many investors were not positioned for this outcome.In line with our expectations the surprise Presidential election of Trump has shocked many financial markets around the world. Emerging…

Near Term Global Economic Implications of Surprise Trump Victory

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

China tells the world that its efforts to halt or even reverse desertification in the north of the country are working. Experts tell a very different story, with little sign that the degradation of land shows any sign of ending.

China tells the world that its efforts to halt or even reverse desertification in the north of the country are working. Experts tell a very different story, with little sign that the degradation of land shows any sign of ending.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash transactions constitute 80% of transactions in the economy. In the informal sector, which is half of the economy, all the transactions are carried out on a cash basis. Liquidity shortage on account of currency notes being deposited back into banks has affected economic activity across the board. High-value notes constituted 86% of total outstanding notes…

Demonetisation:20% High-Value Notes May Be Destroyed, a Hit of 1-2% of GDP; Move a Long-Run Positive

China

iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, investing in large cap stocks. Its investments are focused in the financial, oil and gas, technology and communications sectors. The ETF uses a representative sampling indexing strategy, investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index.

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iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)

What Are the Risks in China?

China’s recent stabilisation remains fragile. Financial indicators are flashing warnings; weak private investment is hurting growth prospects and...

Jason Tan

How Have Risks for Asia Changed Recently?

A confluence of recent global developments calls for a re-examination of Asia's outlook. The following factors will largely determine the outlook...

Manu Bhaskaran

Near Term Global Economic Implications of Surprise Trump Victory

Going into US elections Hilary was expected to win. It just goes to show you that when there is a possibility that something happens (no matter how...

David Riedel

China's Imaginary Forests

China tells the world that its efforts to halt or even reverse desertification in the north of the country are working. Experts tell a very...

Bixmoor

Demonetisation:20% High-Value Notes May Be Destroyed, a Hit of 1-2% of GDP; Move a Long-Run Positive

Demonetization of high-value currency notes (Rs500 and Rs1000 denomination) has slowed down activity levels significantly given that cash...

Asia Advisors

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