Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Chinese economy further cemented its nascent stabilisation on the back of a more buoyant housing market and domestic demand. The economy expanded 6.8% in 4Q16 and clocked in full-year growth of 6.7%. The export outlook is also brighter while credit conditions are likely to be tightened in the year ahead in order to rein in financial risks.</li><li>The respectable growth rate achieved in 2016 was attained on the back of traditional growth engines and unsustainable policy levers. Restructuring efforts need to take place swiftly to ensure that economic growth in the years ahead are of higher quality and greater sustainability. Structural reforms are indeed painful, but sorely needed to move the economy onto the next phase of development.</li><li>Yet, politics loom large. The looming 19th Party Congress will likely crimp reformist zeal as party leaders strive to ensure social stability. A hawkish Trump Administration could also spark a trade war, denting economic growth and impinging on the space for reforms.</li></ul>

The Chinese economy further cemented its nascent stabilisation on the back of a more buoyant housing market and domestic demand. The economy expanded 6.8% in 4Q16 and clocked in full-year growth of 6.7%. The export outlook is also brighter while credit conditions are likely to be tightened in the year ahead in order to rein in financial risks.The respectable growth rate achieved in 2016 was attained on the back of traditional growth engines and unsustainable policy levers. Restructuring efforts need to take place swiftly to ensure that economic growth in the years ahead are of higher quality and greater sustainability. Structural reforms are indeed painful, but sorely needed to move the economy onto the next phase of development.Yet, politics loom large. The looming 19th Party Congress will likely crimp reformist zeal as party leaders strive to ensure social stability. A hawkish Trump Administration could also spark a trade war, denting economic growth and impinging on the space for reforms.

China: Restructuring Efforts Key to Long-Term Growth but Political Factors Also in Play

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David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017<ul><li class="li2">In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.</li></ul><ul>
<li class="li2">Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.</li>
<li class="li2">
US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened…</li>
</ul>

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased slightly to a level of .53, up from .5 in November and above the average reading of 0.37 for the first 11 months of the year.
Upward momentum in the GCSI has been enough to offset concern about rising inflation and the uncertainty of the Trump presidency in the U.S. set to begin Jan 20th.

US dollar strength since Trump’s election in November dampened…


Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

<ul>
<li>In December the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 116.6 , just above the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are ‘Rationally Pessimistic’. </li>
<li>Consumer Sentiment has been fluctuating at a low level in recent years and continues this trend. </li>
<li>Nearly half of respondents say that they expect prices to be up by between 6% and 9% in a year.  This would be a surprisingly high level of inflation given that recent CPI reports have been in the 1.9% - 2.3% range. </li>
<li>Nearly 10%…</li>
</ul>


In December the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 116.6 , just above the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are ‘Rationally Pessimistic’. 
Consumer Sentiment has been fluctuating at a low level in recent years and continues this trend. 
Nearly half of respondents say that they expect prices to be up by between 6% and 9% in a year.  This would be a surprisingly high level of inflation given that recent CPI reports have been in the 1.9% - 2.3% range. 
Nearly 10%…


China Consumers Are Concerned About 6% - 9% Inflation and a Much Worse Employment Outlook

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>Trump will likely do little to hurt China except negotiate.</li>
<li>
China direct investments in US will slow dramatically in 2017.
</li>
<li>Policies helping Apple with big subsidies will go away impacting foreign companies in China – focus will be made in China only.</li>
<li>Exports to the US will shrink fast and imports into China will rise with the US making iPhones – China will lose a tiny assembly %.</li>
<li>US influence in Asia will fall with Trump government, good for China and its interests.</li>
<li>
China becoming new champion of…</li>
</ul>


Trump will likely do little to hurt China except negotiate.

China direct investments in US will slow dramatically in 2017.

Policies helping Apple with big subsidies will go away impacting foreign companies in China – focus will be made in China only.
Exports to the US will shrink fast and imports into China will rise with the US making iPhones – China will lose a tiny assembly %.
US influence in Asia will fall with Trump government, good for China and its interests.

China becoming new champion of…


CHINA - A Look into 2017 - A Year for Volatility – Part II

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul>
<li>
Clear rise in inflation risks: China’s PPI rose 5% y/y in Dec 16, up from 3.3% in Nov 16 - the fastest in more than five years. CPI increased 2.1% in Dec 16, down from 2.3% in Nov 16. However, non-food inflation was at its highest since Nov 11.</li>
<li>
Exports remain weak, domestic demand is key: China’s exports continued to fall, down 6.1% in Dec 16 with weakness across all export categories. Monetary data showed new bank loans rising, powered by more lending to corporates and the government sector…</li>
</ul>



Clear rise in inflation risks: China’s PPI rose 5% y/y in Dec 16, up from 3.3% in Nov 16 - the fastest in more than five years. CPI increased 2.1% in Dec 16, down from 2.3% in Nov 16. However, non-food inflation was at its highest since Nov 11.

Exports remain weak, domestic demand is key: China’s exports continued to fall, down 6.1% in Dec 16 with weakness across all export categories. Monetary data showed new bank loans rising, powered by more lending to corporates and the government sector…


China: Need to Focus on Restructuring Efforts

China

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China: Restructuring Efforts Key to Long-Term Growth but Political Factors Also in Play

The Chinese economy further cemented its nascent stabilisation on the back of a more buoyant housing market and domestic demand. The economy...

Manu Bhaskaran

Global Consumer Sentiment Strong in Dec but Troubling Patterns Risk Volatility in 2017

GCSI Rises In December but Increased Polarization Predicts Volatility in 2017In December the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) increased...

David Riedel

China Consumers Are Concerned About 6% - 9% Inflation and a Much Worse Employment Outlook

In December the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 116.6 , just above the threshold of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

CHINA - A Look into 2017 - A Year for Volatility – Part II

Trump will likely do little to hurt China except negotiate. China direct investments in US will slow dramatically in 2017. Policies helping...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

China: Need to Focus on Restructuring Efforts

Clear rise in inflation risks: China’s PPI rose 5% y/y in Dec 16, up from 3.3% in Nov 16 - the fastest in more than five years. CPI increased...

Jason Tan

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