Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As our review posted today of the department store sector makes clear (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japanese-department-stores-2018-19-taking-new-risks-creates-opportunity" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity</a>), the sector overall continues to decline. The contraction is slowing but it will continue for at least the next decade.
This negative pall puts many investors off, perhaps not surprisingly given the poor consistency of performance among even the better operators.
However, within this contracting market are emerging signs of improved performance particularly in terms of extracting more sales per square metre and, in turn, improved profitability from each store. The leading four firms, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP)</a> and Sogo Seibu (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> all have different strategies on how to achieve this. The following is a review of each of the big four.

As our review posted today of the department store sector makes clear (Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity), the sector overall continues to decline. The contraction is slowing but it will continue for at least the next decade.
This negative pall puts many investors off, perhaps not surprisingly given the poor consistency of performance among even the better operators.
However, within this contracting market are emerging signs of improved performance particularly in terms of extracting more sales per square metre and, in turn, improved profitability from each store. The leading four firms, J Front Retailing (3086 JP), Takashimaya (8233 JP),Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings L (3099 JP) and Sogo Seibu (Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) all have different strategies on how to achieve this. The following is a review of each of the big four.

Hell Will Freeze over And (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a solid result and reflective of the continued support for the format from wealthy Japanese and inbound tourists.
However, only cosmetics and accessories floors performed well while the important apparel category continued to decline sharply. Food floors also suffered a set back last year.
However, the overall data belies a much more positive outlook for the leading stores and chains.
After 20 years of dithering, management has come to a consensus that taking control of sales floors – and becoming real retailers again – is good for growth and especially the bottom line. Department stores will never deliver market leading growth but they could offer investors an opportunity if OP rises significantly. The building blocks are at least being put in place that could make this happen.
As well as this review of the sector, we have also posted an update on the top four department store firms and their medium-term strategies (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hell-will-freeze-over-and-some-japanese-department-stores-will-increase-opm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hell Will Freeze over and (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM</a>).

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a solid result and reflective of the continued support for the format from wealthy Japanese and inbound tourists.
However, only cosmetics and accessories floors performed well while the important apparel category continued to decline sharply. Food floors also suffered a set back last year.
However, the overall data belies a much more positive outlook for the leading stores and chains.
After 20 years of dithering, management has come to a consensus that taking control of sales floors – and becoming real retailers again – is good for growth and especially the bottom line. Department stores will never deliver market leading growth but they could offer investors an opportunity if OP rises significantly. The building blocks are at least being put in place that could make this happen.
As well as this review of the sector, we have also posted an update on the top four department store firms and their medium-term strategies (Hell Will Freeze over and (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM).

Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-and-ranking-2018-19-profit-growth-slowing-as-competition-increases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.</a>

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/226/original/2019-06-13_16-47-07.png?1560412038" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90226"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/196/original/2019-06-13_11-15-27.png?1560392157" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90196"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-june-relative-price-scores-market-sectors-peer-groups-more-of-the-same" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30323">🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same</a>, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. <hr>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/202/original/2019-06-13_13-06-49.png?1560398835" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90202"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>RPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1">Descente (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alfresa-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10610:1">Alfresa (2784 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eiken-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12675:1">Eiken Chemical (4549 JP)</a>.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/201/original/2019-06-13_13-04-38.png?1560398780" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90201"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/203/original/2019-06-13_13-08-46.png?1560398945" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90203"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/204/original/2019-06-13_13-09-37.png?1560399049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90204"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/205/original/2019-06-13_13-12-01.png?1560399142" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90205"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/316/original/2019-06-15_19-45-47.png?1560595558" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90316"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k-o-energy-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17701:1">K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP)</a>.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/207/original/2019-06-13_13-14-03.png?1560399270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90207"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Goldwin (8111 JP) has the distinction of being one of only two large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' since that time.This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,832 listed companies for which daily RPS data is available, 94 companies are 'Overbought', and 131 are 'Oversold' - 2.5% and 3.4%, respectively of the total. For the 758 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 50 'Overbought' and 18 'Oversold' companies, 6.6% and 5.0%, respectively. As noted the companion Insight, 🇯🇵 Japan • June Relative Price Scores: Market, Sectors &amp; Peer Groups - More of The Same, these numbers and percentages are unusual and were last seen in the Japanese market in 2000. • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE TOPS •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 444 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 43 days. 1.4% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 96 companies and 75 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Descente (8114 JP), Alfresa (2784 JP), FamilyMart Uny (8028 JP), Kikkoman (2801 JP), Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967 JP), and Eiken Chemical (4549 JP).  
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 372 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 61 days. 1.5% of the total of 1.29 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 85 companies and 89 days. A recent example of positive RPS mean reversion is K&amp;O Energy (1663 JP).
Source: Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL section below, we list the current very overbought (RPS&gt;5), too late to buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suruga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1">Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)</a>‘s balance-sheet and reputation caused by its catastrophic involvement in the fraudulent ‘share house’ debacle and other property investment lending disasters.  FY3/2019 consolidated net losses exceeded ¥97.1 billion (US$892.6 million).  Roughly 60% of the bank’s entire ¥1.7 trillion investment loan portfolio is deemed to have been “inappropriate”, but not necessarily irrecoverable. The bank is cautiously guiding for consolidated net profits in FY3/2020 of ¥10.5 billion, but the dividend remains suspended indefinitely and much uncertainty remains.Heads continue to roll: at least 117 staff have been disciplined, according to media reports.  At the Board level, 5 senior Board members (including then-chairman Mitsuyoshi Okano and then-president Akihiro Yoneyama) resigned on 7 September 2018.  After the upcoming AGM at the end of June, only incumbent president Michio Arikuni is likely to remain of the current management team: all others are expected to step down, including four external directors, as the bank seeks to put even further distance between it and any lingering perception of influence from the Okano Family.Suruga Bank’s share price is currently drifting in the mid-¥400 range.  It is down over 65% YoY.  There is perhaps some comfort to any remaining loyal shareholders in the knowledge that the stock is down a ‘mere’ 19% in the last three months.  That said, potential ‘white knights’, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, are biding their time and not rushing to invest, suggesting they, too, expect the stock price to go lower still.  Caveat emptor (May the buyer beware!)

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)‘s balance-sheet and reputation caused by its catastrophic involvement in the fraudulent ‘share house’ debacle and other property investment lending disasters.  FY3/2019 consolidated net losses exceeded ¥97.1 billion (US$892.6 million).  Roughly 60% of the bank’s entire ¥1.7 trillion investment loan portfolio is deemed to have been “inappropriate”, but not necessarily irrecoverable. The bank is cautiously guiding for consolidated net profits in FY3/2020 of ¥10.5 billion, but the dividend remains suspended indefinitely and much uncertainty remains.Heads continue to roll: at least 117 staff have been disciplined, according to media reports.  At the Board level, 5 senior Board members (including then-chairman Mitsuyoshi Okano and then-president Akihiro Yoneyama) resigned on 7 September 2018.  After the upcoming AGM at the end of June, only incumbent president Michio Arikuni is likely to remain of the current management team: all others are expected to step down, including four external directors, as the bank seeks to put even further distance between it and any lingering perception of influence from the Okano Family.Suruga Bank’s share price is currently drifting in the mid-¥400 range.  It is down over 65% YoY.  There is perhaps some comfort to any remaining loyal shareholders in the knowledge that the stock is down a ‘mere’ 19% in the last three months.  That said, potential ‘white knights’, including Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), are biding their time and not rushing to invest, suggesting they, too, expect the stock price to go lower still.  Caveat emptor (May the buyer beware!)

Suruga Bank (8358 JP):  Purging the Augean Stables 2019: Part 7 - Executive Executions

Japan

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

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Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)

Hell Will Freeze over And (Some) Japanese Department Stores Will Increase OPM

As our review posted today of the department store sector makes clear (Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity),...

Michael Causton

Japanese Department Stores 2018-19: Taking New Risks Creates Opportunity

The department store sector witnessed a small drop in sales in FY2018 but, considering the large number of closures and conversions, this was a...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Relative Price Scores - Overbought & Oversold Companies - June 2019

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

Suruga Bank (8358 JP): Purging the Augean Stables 2019: Part 7 - Executive Executions

Full details are finally starting to emerge of the extent of the destruction to once-proud Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)‘s balance-sheet and reputation...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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