Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable disruption caused by the November demonetization exercise.</li>
<li>Private consumption recorded a 4-year high despite demonetization hitting many cash-based transactions, expanding 10.1% y/y in 4Q16, up from 5.1% y/y in 3Q16. Government spending surged 19.9% y/y in 4Q16, up from 15.2% y/y in 3Q16. Gross fixed capital formation grew 3.5% y/y, up from a 5.3% y/y…</li>
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India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable disruption caused by the November demonetization exercise.
Private consumption recorded a 4-year high despite demonetization hitting many cash-based transactions, expanding 10.1% y/y in 4Q16, up from 5.1% y/y in 3Q16. Government spending surged 19.9% y/y in 4Q16, up from 15.2% y/y in 3Q16. Gross fixed capital formation grew 3.5% y/y, up from a 5.3% y/y…


India: High Growth Figures Leave Many Analysts in Doubt

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for the BJP.</li>
<li>In the Mumbai corporation, the BJP's now estranged former ally, Shiv Sena won the greatest number of seats, 84 out of 227 seats, just barely ahead of BJP’s 82 seats (up from 31 previously). While Shiv Sena won the Thane Municipal corporation, the BJP clinched a majority in the remaining 8 corporations, a clear setback to the Shiv Sena, which has…</li>
</ul>


The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for the BJP.
In the Mumbai corporation, the BJP's now estranged former ally, Shiv Sena won the greatest number of seats, 84 out of 227 seats, just barely ahead of BJP’s 82 seats (up from 31 previously). While Shiv Sena won the Thane Municipal corporation, the BJP clinched a majority in the remaining 8 corporations, a clear setback to the Shiv Sena, which has…


India: Modi's BJP Makes Headway in a Key State

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in the previous quarter and 7.2% YoY in Apr-Jun 2016), defying the gloom merchants who predicted a collapse in economic activity and private consumption after the two largest-denomination bank notes (Rs500 and Rs1000) were demonetized (or banned from circulation) on 8 November 2016. People's lives were disrupted, and long queues formed outside ATM…

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in the previous quarter and 7.2% YoY in Apr-Jun 2016), defying the gloom merchants who predicted a collapse in economic activity and private consumption after the two largest-denomination bank notes (Rs500 and Rs1000) were demonetized (or banned from circulation) on 8 November 2016. People's lives were disrupted, and long queues formed outside ATM…

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early next month. Their outcome will determine whether Modi is weakened into the final two years of his first term, or instead emerges strengthened (likely) -- and in pole-position to win re-election in the 2019 general election. Modi took an unusual political gamble with his move to Demonetize the largest-denomination currency notes -- and these election…

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early next month. Their outcome will determine whether Modi is weakened into the final two years of his first term, or instead emerges strengthened (likely) -- and in pole-position to win re-election in the 2019 general election. Modi took an unusual political gamble with his move to Demonetize the largest-denomination currency notes -- and these election…

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts<ul><li>
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…</li></ul>

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

India

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iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: High Growth Figures Leave Many Analysts in Doubt

India’s GDP growth grew at a brisk 7.0% y/y in 4Q16, down only slightly from 7.4% y/y in 3Q16, despite all the other data pointing to sizeable...

Asees Bajaj

India: Modi's BJP Makes Headway in a Key State

The Maharashtra Civic Elections for 10 large urban municipal corporations including the urban cities of Mumbai, Thane and Pune showed gains for...

Manu Bhaskaran

Negligible Impact of Note Ban on GDP

Real GDP grows 7.4% in 2016, 7% YoY in 4Q 2016. India's real GDP growth slowed only marginally to 7% YoY in October-December 2016 (from 7.4% YoY in...

Prasenjit K. Basu

11 March Holds Key to Modi's 2nd Term

India's PM Narendra Modi is facing a key mid-term electoral challenge in state assembly elections to five states occurring this month and early...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s...

Manu Bhaskaran