Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The Indian authorities unveiled a package of reforms yesterday which, taken together, add to up a welcome booster-shot to the economy. There are three key elements: a major expansion of highway construction, hefty MSP increases for key winter crops and, most importantly, a INR2.11 trillion banking recapitalisation plan. The first two elements should ensure that the recent green shoots in the economy blossom further and that GDP growth moves back towards 7% y/y. Implementation on the banking</strong>…</p></div>

The Indian authorities unveiled a package of reforms yesterday which, taken together, add to up a welcome booster-shot to the economy. There are three key elements: a major expansion of highway construction, hefty MSP increases for key winter crops and, most importantly, a INR2.11 trillion banking recapitalisation plan. The first two elements should ensure that the recent green shoots in the economy blossom further and that GDP growth moves back towards 7% y/y. Implementation on the banking…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>The RBI's six-berth MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 6% as widely expected with the 'dove', Dr. Dholakia, voting for a 25bp rate cut. The main 'news' today was the evolution of the apex bank's GDP and CPI forecasts. Although FY18 GDP forecast was marked down by 60bp, the MPC's modal CPI forecast for FY18 H2 was nonetheless pushed higher by 20bp with risks still skewed to the upside. With the latest data signalling that the economy is showing welcome signs re-gaining momentum and inflation</strong>…</p></div>

The RBI's six-berth MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 6% as widely expected with the 'dove', Dr. Dholakia, voting for a 25bp rate cut. The main 'news' today was the evolution of the apex bank's GDP and CPI forecasts. Although FY18 GDP forecast was marked down by 60bp, the MPC's modal CPI forecast for FY18 H2 was nonetheless pushed higher by 20bp with risks still skewed to the upside. With the latest data signalling that the economy is showing welcome signs re-gaining momentum and inflation…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have</strong>…</p></div>

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing, clothing and footwear and core services inflation. Only continued unprecedented but ultimately unsustainable deflation in pulses is keeping inflation below 4% y/y. With base effects set to keep pushing inflation up and upside risks from the 7th Pay Commission hovering in the wings, rate-cut expectations should fade further. 5% inflation, as we have…

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><span class="s1">The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and societies is absurd.  BRICS is a useful fund management and investment marketing tool but not the building blocks to build a group with true international power.</span></p><p><span class="s1">China hosted the BRICS summit in Xiamen this weekend and invited some additional countries to participate (including Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand).  Despite their protestations that this</span>…</p>

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and societies is absurd.  BRICS is a useful fund management and investment marketing tool but not the building blocks to build a group with true international power.China hosted the BRICS summit in Xiamen this weekend and invited some additional countries to participate (including Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand).  Despite their protestations that this…

BRICS Summit in China Promotes an Irrelevant and Ineffective Global Grouping - Riedel on CNBC

<p>Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.</p><p>India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…</p>

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the  glass is simply twice as large as it needs to be! Ultimately, analysis and opinion is often in the 'eye of the beholder'.India's latest GDP report is a perfect case in point with pessimistic, optimistic and realistic interpretations all plausible and legitimate. This short note will try to encompass all three view points and, in the process, hopefully shed more light on the Indian…

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Economy Gets A Booster-Shot

The Indian authorities unveiled a package of reforms yesterday which, taken together, add to up a welcome booster-shot to the economy. There are...

Richard Iley

RBI: Holding Pattern

The RBI's six-berth MPC kept the policy rate unchanged at 6% as widely expected with the 'dove', Dr. Dholakia, voting for a 25bp rate cut. The main...

Richard Iley

India: Return To Normalcy

CPI inflation continued to normalise in August, led by a continued acceleration in vegetable inflation but also further upticks in housing,...

Richard Iley

BRICS Summit in China Promotes an Irrelevant and Ineffective Global Grouping - Riedel on CNBC

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and...

David Riedel

India: The Eye of the Beholder

Some people tend to view 'the glass' as half full; others as half empty. A further alternative is that the glass is simply twice as large as it...

Richard Iley