'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/916/original/2018-10-28_08-34-54.png?1540683306" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67916"></figure>MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price trends which often occur within the Overbought (+4) and Oversold (-2) levels of the Price Score, but still offer interesting short-term reversal opportunities. Our indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9990" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9990:1">Shima Seiki (6222 JP)</a> - chart above - is currently the most extreme negative outlier and the stock with the wort two-week negative change. Having declined by 41% in a month and 19% on Friday, is now likely to see a positive short-term reversal.A NOTE OF CAUTION - We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. For longer-term positioning, the Relative Price Score and Volume Scores are preferred in addition to our residual income valuation metrics. MARKET TIMING - The number of extreme positive and negative moving average outlier values can also be indicative of the state of market optimism or pessimism.  Currently, there are only 15 very positive outliers and 149 very negative outliers. Both are the highest such number in over three years. However, we would suggest that the number of negative outliers needs to reach over 300 for a 'capitulation low'. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/067/921/original/2018-10-28_11-44-53.png?1540694710" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="67921"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we cover the top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price trends which often occur within the Overbought (+4) and Oversold (-2) levels of the Price Score, but still offer interesting short-term reversal opportunities. Our indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to the 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. Shima Seiki (6222 JP) - chart above - is currently the most extreme negative outlier and the stock with the wort two-week negative change. Having declined by 41% in a month and 19% on Friday, is now likely to see a positive short-term reversal.A NOTE OF CAUTION - We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen in future. For longer-term positioning, the Relative Price Score and Volume Scores are preferred in addition to our residual income valuation metrics. MARKET TIMING - The number of extreme positive and negative moving average outlier values can also be indicative of the state of market optimism or pessimism.  Currently, there are only 15 very positive outliers and 149 very negative outliers. Both are the highest such number in over three years. However, we would suggest that the number of negative outliers needs to reach over 300 for a 'capitulation low'. Source: Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL section below, we cover the top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Japan Aviation Electronics / Event-Driven

At the end of May this year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17084" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1">NEC Corp</a> (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of shares outstanding in affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9095" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9095:1">Japan Aviation Electronics</a> (JAE) through a tender offer which is expected to begin in November 2016 after the receipt of approvals from various anti-trust authorities and regulatory bodies. The stated goal is to make JAE a subsidiary of NEC (it is currently an equity-method affiliate) and reap synergies in cooperating in…

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of shares outstanding in affiliate Japan Aviation Electronics (JAE) through a tender offer which is expected to begin in November 2016 after the receipt of approvals from various anti-trust authorities and regulatory bodies. The stated goal is to make JAE a subsidiary of NEC (it is currently an equity-method affiliate) and reap synergies in cooperating in…

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update:  Launch Expected Next Month

Japan

IRISO ELECTRONICS CO., LTD. produces precision metal pins and high-technology connectors for printed circuit boards used in a range of electrical equipment. The Company also sells electrical lead wires.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Iriso Electronics (6908 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price...

Campbell Gunn

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update: Launch Expected Next Month

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Playing the Extremes

MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - In addition to our Relative Price Score, we also monitor deviations from moving averages to highlight extreme price...

Campbell Gunn

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

Japan Aviation Electronics Partial Tender Update: Launch Expected Next Month

At the end of May this year, NEC Corp (NEC) announced it would spend JPY 19.2bn (~US$170mm) to purchase 10 million shares or approximately 11% of...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth