Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Iochpe-Maxion's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong".

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).  We assess Iochpe-Maxion's ESG as "Adequate", in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are "Immaterial" and Disclosure is "Strong". 

Iochpe-Maxion - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Going into the new year, Brazil featured prominently as a key overweight EM on commodity &amp; China leverage, undervalued BRL and potential upside from reforms</li>
<li>In the past month, MSCI Brazil (EWZ) underperformed MSCI EM (EEM) by ~9% and the BRL underperformed on fiscal policy worries, an unwelcome upside inflation surprise, disappointing retail sales, delayed vaccine timelines, pandemic resurgence and concerns on potential breach of spending caps</li>
<li>Our text-mined indicators saw a melt-up in sentiment on Brazil &amp; EMs hitting record highs in late December with &gt;3x STDEV readings; after a slight pullback, overall EM sentiment is on the rise again but our Brazil macro indicator has yet to recover</li>
<li>Aside from the IPCA inflation and retail disappointment, our Brazil indicator has been impacted by news of Ford's announcement of 3 auto plant closures eliminating ~8% of total Brazilian auto production last week</li>
<li>Despite the barrage of bad news, not all indicators are negative:  Incoming December activity indicators and flows are new positives, while yesterday's approval of AstraZeneca &amp; Sinovac vaccines is another incremental positive after mismanagement &amp; anti-vax messaging from Bolsonaro</li>
<li>While idiosyncratic challenges in Brazil are significant, this is "business as usual"; stability in USD and treasury yields would likely help re-establish conviction in Brazilian equities and the BRL on the broader EM flows theme, for a much-anticipated catch-up trade</li>
</ul>


Going into the new year, Brazil featured prominently as a key overweight EM on commodity &amp; China leverage, undervalued BRL and potential upside from reforms
In the past month, MSCI Brazil (EWZ) underperformed MSCI EM (EEM) by ~9% and the BRL underperformed on fiscal policy worries, an unwelcome upside inflation surprise, disappointing retail sales, delayed vaccine timelines, pandemic resurgence and concerns on potential breach of spending caps
Our text-mined indicators saw a melt-up in sentiment on Brazil &amp; EMs hitting record highs in late December with &gt;3x STDEV readings; after a slight pullback, overall EM sentiment is on the rise again but our Brazil macro indicator has yet to recover
Aside from the IPCA inflation and retail disappointment, our Brazil indicator has been impacted by news of Ford's announcement of 3 auto plant closures eliminating ~8% of total Brazilian auto production last week
Despite the barrage of bad news, not all indicators are negative:  Incoming December activity indicators and flows are new positives, while yesterday's approval of AstraZeneca &amp; Sinovac vaccines is another incremental positive after mismanagement &amp; anti-vax messaging from Bolsonaro
While idiosyncratic challenges in Brazil are significant, this is "business as usual"; stability in USD and treasury yields would likely help re-establish conviction in Brazilian equities and the BRL on the broader EM flows theme, for a much-anticipated catch-up trade


TMI Snapshot: Our Brazil Sentiment Signal Diverges from Rest of EM - Opportunity or Warning?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength uptrend, we reiterate our overweight EM recommendation. Energy and Health Care stocks are outperforming and remain attractive. Technology is consolidating and we would use recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

Brazil

Iochpe-Maxion S.A. manufactures vehicle parts.  The Company produces chassis and wheels for trucks and buses, door components, lock cylinders, pedals, hand brake levers, jacks, water and oil pumps, and railroad freight cars and wheels.

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Iochpe Maxion Sa (MYPK3 BZ)

Iochpe-Maxion - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics' ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable). We assess Iochpe-Maxion's ESG as...

Lucror Analytics

TMI Snapshot: Our Brazil Sentiment Signal Diverges from Rest of EM - Opportunity or Warning?

Our Brazil macro sentiment indicator has diverged from broader EM to the downside on a series of negative surprises and fiscal policy concerns, but...

Elan Gore

EM Strategy: Overweight Technology, Energy, and Health Care.

EM equities remain long-term leadership despite giving up some ground over the last month to developed markets. Given the intact relative strength...

Vermilion Research

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