Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads widening and tightening.
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 49.5%; GBL, 35.7%; Heineken Holding, 18%; Industrivärden C, 13.5%; Investor B, 15.5%; Porsche Automobile Holding 40.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to %.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 at same level).
Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Ericsson, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Trade recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November ‘22 Report

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. </li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October in line with the market recovery. 
Discounts to NAV (31 October): C.F.Alba, 48.7%; GBL, 34.4%; Heineken Holding, 18.3%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 16.8%; Porsche Automobile Holding 41.8%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.4%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: GBL, Rio Tinto (DLC), CF Alba (long position).


Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Sweden

Investor AB is an industrial holding company. The Company owns significant shareholdings in major public multinational companies and conducts private equity activities in Europe, North America, and Asia. Investor takes an active ownership role in many of the companies it owns.

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Investor (INVEA SS)

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: November/Mid-December‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have showed a mixed performance during November and the first half of December, with the same number of spreads...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November ‘22 Report

Since mid-September, spreads have shown a mixed performance across our liquid universe with a slight bias towards widening (10 have widened, 8...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLC: October ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly tightened during October as a result of market recovery. Short-term recoveries provide...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)