Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US economy that is in the midst of a strong, above-trend mid-cycle upswing, bringing an increasingly tight labour market in its train. The only missing piece of the jigsaw is still subdued wage inflation that will eventually follow. </div>Bears on the US economy are having a tough time of it lately. As we have highlighted in several recent reports, GDP growth looks…

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US economy that is in the midst of a strong, above-trend mid-cycle upswing, bringing an increasingly tight labour market in its train. The only missing piece of the jigsaw is still subdued wage inflation that will eventually follow. Bears on the US economy are having a tough time of it lately. As we have highlighted in several recent reports, GDP growth looks…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. <a href="https://www.isl.org/en/news/rwi-isl-container-throughput-index-reaches-new-heights" target="_blank">The RWI/ISL container throughput index</a> is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. The RWI/ISL container throughput index is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the manufacturing sector is booming. Manufacturing payrolls jumped by a seasonally-adjusted +36k in August; their largest monthly gain in 4 years.  Moreover, the 3-month gain in manufacturing jobs is a now a punchy +83k; the strongest since 2012Q1. The BLS also provides a diffusion index for manufacturing employment which measures the breadth of jobs gains across…

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the manufacturing sector is booming. Manufacturing payrolls jumped by a seasonally-adjusted +36k in August; their largest monthly gain in 4 years.  Moreover, the 3-month gain in manufacturing jobs is a now a punchy +83k; the strongest since 2012Q1. The BLS also provides a diffusion index for manufacturing employment which measures the breadth of jobs gains across…

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

US: Labour Market JOLTS The Bears

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US...

Richard Iley

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable...

Richard Iley

US: Manufacturing Boom!

While markets have focused on the slight miss in the headline number, the real message of the August labour market report was that the...

Richard Iley

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