Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.</li><li>As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.</li><li>And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.</li></ul>

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioning themselves in the current market.As with every other rally, retail investors end up blindly following the big players, and long risk might very well be the play to make as flows from ETFs and retail investors continue to lift markets.And with that in mind, we have spiced up today’s version, moving away from the CFTC report and instead trying to have a look at what various surveys are telling us about the current market.

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback <em>again</em>.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.</li><li>Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.</li><li>This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen.Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond markets, impacted by very tight liquidity.This story has been somewhat masked by policy events in the US and Germany, but it may nonetheless be the most important narrative for Q4, which is why you need to pay attention to it.

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

United States

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on Nasdaq. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology.

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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ US)

Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks Scenario is Intensifying

Happy Saturday everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we dissect how traders and investors are positioned

Steno Research

EQD | Volatility Update: A Look at Global Indices - What Trades Make Sense?

A brief look at global vol changes over the last week, analysing vol and skew moves. We identify some trades that make sense based on the shape of...

Simon Harris

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #125: EUR Liquidity Overtakes USD Liquidity – A Historic Shift

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen. Bear with me this week through this long read as we approach an extremely interesting crossroads in sovereign bond...

Steno Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

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