Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power


Breaking Growth Short Candidates:  Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.</li>
<li>Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.</li>
</ul>


The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intuitive-surgical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15853:1" rel="noopener">Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US)</a> reported Q2 results, which missed expectations. Overall performance was impacted by COVID-19 resurgence and macro headwinds including inflation and supply chain constraint.</li>
<li>Despite lockdowns in its second biggest market of China, the company reported worldwide da Vinci procedures growth of 14% y/y, in-line with earlier full-year guidance range of 12–16%.</li>
<li>With China showing signs of recovery, Intuitive now expects worldwide da Vinci procedures to grow 14.0–16.5% in 2022. However, soft U.S. hospital capex remains an area of concern.  </li>
</ul>



Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) reported Q2 results, which missed expectations. Overall performance was impacted by COVID-19 resurgence and macro headwinds including inflation and supply chain constraint.
Despite lockdowns in its second biggest market of China, the company reported worldwide da Vinci procedures growth of 14% y/y, in-line with earlier full-year guidance range of 12–16%.
With China showing signs of recovery, Intuitive now expects worldwide da Vinci procedures to grow 14.0–16.5% in 2022. However, soft U.S. hospital capex remains an area of concern.  


Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Q2 2022 Results Missed Expectations; Raised Procedure Growth Guidance

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace Inc, Intuitive Surgical</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace Inc, Intuitive Surgical


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace, Intuitive Surgical

United States

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. design, manufactures, and markets surgical systems. The Company offers endoscopes, endoscopic retractors and disectors, scissors, scalpels, forceps, needle holders, electrocautery, ultrasonic cutters, and accessories during surgical procedures. Intuitive Surgical operates worldwide.

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Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US)

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

$SPX is testing important resistance in the 4165-4180 area, the same resistance level we were monitoring in early June before the market tumbled 13...

Vermilion Research

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and...

Eric Fernandez, CFA