Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.</li>
<li>Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.</li>
<li>Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.</li>
</ul>


Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, Q3 results from the large medtech companies showed some encouraging signs including healthy procedure volume growth depicting recovery in the medtech sector globally.
Amidst fear of recession, most of these companies reported healthy system placement and no order cancellation. Diabetes, with a large underpenetrated addressable population, remains one of the most resilient segments.
Financial performances of APAC medtech companies are expected to be driven by healthy global procedure volume growth and Fx, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds including inflation and supply constraints.


Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite challenging macroeconomic environment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intuitive-surgical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15853:1" rel="noopener">Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US)</a> reported stellar Q3 results, with revenue growing 11% y/y to $1.56 billion, mainly driven by da Vinci procedure growth of 20%.</li>
<li>Q3 procedure growth reflected U.S. and OUS procedures growth of 18% and 24%, respectively. Management has raised 2022 da Vinci procedure growth guidance to 17–18% from 14.0–16.5% earlier.   </li>
<li>System placement improved 9% q/q to 305 placements, with system ASP remaining at $1.5 million, consistent with last quarter. As of 3Q22, installed base grew 13% y/y to 7,364 systems.</li>
</ul>


Despite challenging macroeconomic environment, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) reported stellar Q3 results, with revenue growing 11% y/y to $1.56 billion, mainly driven by da Vinci procedure growth of 20%.
Q3 procedure growth reflected U.S. and OUS procedures growth of 18% and 24%, respectively. Management has raised 2022 da Vinci procedure growth guidance to 17–18% from 14.0–16.5% earlier.   
System placement improved 9% q/q to 305 placements, with system ASP remaining at $1.5 million, consistent with last quarter. As of 3Q22, installed base grew 13% y/y to 7,364 systems.


Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 2022 Results; Raised Procedure Growth Guidance

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power


Breaking Growth Short Candidates:  Outset Med., NVIDIA, Intuitive Surgical, Plug Power

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.</li>
<li>Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.</li>
</ul>


The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Shopify, Snowflake, Intuitive Surgical, ServiceNow

United States

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. design, manufactures, and markets surgical systems. The Company offers endoscopes, endoscopic retractors and disectors, scissors, scalpels, forceps, needle holders, electrocautery, ultrasonic cutters, and accessories during surgical procedures. Intuitive Surgical operates worldwide.

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Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US)

Global Medtech Trends: Readouts from Early Birds of Q3 Earnings Season- Positives and Negatives

Q3 results of large U.S. medtech companies recorded procedure volume growth. However, macroeconomic headwinds are expected to prevail. Similar...

Tina Banerjee