Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>'s surprising VTO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.</li>
<li>The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. </li>
</ul>


In April 2021, Gulf Energy (GULF TB)'s surprising VTO for Intouch (INTUCH TB) was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for Thaicom (THCOM TB).
Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.
The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. 


Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly eleven months after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> first announced a merger, the NBTC, the Thai telecommunication regulator, has given the go-ahead.  </li>
<li>This long-winded regulatory process hinged on whether the NBTC actually had the legal clout to halt the merger, which would create a duopoly with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> </li>
<li>The transaction process should accelerate from here with an expected listing of the new entity by year-end. </li>
</ul>


Nearly eleven months after Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) first announced a merger, the NBTC, the Thai telecommunication regulator, has given the go-ahead.  
This long-winded regulatory process hinged on whether the NBTC actually had the legal clout to halt the merger, which would create a duopoly with Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) 
The transaction process should accelerate from here with an expected listing of the new entity by year-end. 


DTAC/True: NBTC Green Lights Mobile Duopoly. With Caveats

<ul>
<li>With near-on nine-month having lapsed since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> submitted an amalgamation report, the NBTC may conclude/clarify a sweeping resolution today.</li>
<li>That resolution, prompted by DTAC and True, is expected to establish the NBTC has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the merger, although remedial measures may be enforced.</li>
<li>Further rumours abound as I type that the NBTC decision may be delayed another week. </li>
</ul>


With near-on nine-month having lapsed since True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) submitted an amalgamation report, the NBTC may conclude/clarify a sweeping resolution today.
That resolution, prompted by DTAC and True, is expected to establish the NBTC has no authority to consider approving or rejecting the merger, although remedial measures may be enforced.
Further rumours abound as I type that the NBTC decision may be delayed another week. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a>'s shareholders approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>'s VTO.</li>
<li>Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.</li>
<li>I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. </li>
</ul>



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)'s VTO.
Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.
I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. 


Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)

Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

This is a low-balled Offer from Gulf, Singtel can scupper the transaction. But would they want to be immersed in the politics overseeing the...

David Blennerhassett

DTAC/True: NBTC Green Lights Mobile Duopoly. With Caveats

Nearly eleven months after Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) and True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) first announced a merger, the NBTC, the Thai...

David Blennerhassett

True/DTAC: NBTC's Last Roll Of The Dice?

Recommend going long DTAC short TRUE trade at the current price ratio, using a share ratio. If the deal breaks, you are long DTAC (6.1x forward EV...

David Blennerhassett

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying AIS. I think a more reasonable discount to NAV is >20%. Gulf's holding remains problematic though, and...

David Blennerhassett

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