Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to continue weakening, setting new lows for the year, with the support levels for a potential rebound at 1,167/1,130 points and the resistance at 1,250/1,266 points.</li><li>We recommend buying once a strong technical reversal pattern, specifically a V-shaped recovery, emerges.</li><li>Key market highlights include: i) clarity on US reciprocal tariffs for countries with trade surpluses with the US, including Thailand, before enforcement in early April 2025; ii) economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government; iii) outcomes of the Fed, ECB, and BoE meetings; iv) market impact from the ex-dividend effect; and v) domestic politics, with the no-confidence debate against the government potentially leading to a Cabinet reshuffle.</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to continue weakening, setting new lows for the year, with the support levels for a potential rebound at 1,167/1,130 points and the resistance at 1,250/1,266 points.We recommend buying once a strong technical reversal pattern, specifically a V-shaped recovery, emerges.Key market highlights include: i) clarity on US reciprocal tariffs for countries with trade surpluses with the US, including Thailand, before enforcement in early April 2025; ii) economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government; iii) outcomes of the Fed, ECB, and BoE meetings; iv) market impact from the ex-dividend effect; and v) domestic politics, with the no-confidence debate against the government potentially leading to a Cabinet reshuffle.

Monthly Report: March 2025 (March 6, 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.
The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.</li>
<li>In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.</li>
<li>Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.</li>
</ul>


In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.


Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.</li><li>In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.</li><li>In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300 points.In the medium term, the index remains in a downtrend, forming a rounding-top pattern within the 1,220-1,506-point range.In the short term, the index continues its downward trajectory (zig-zag down), with signs of further weakness emerging after a three-day rebound from the new low of 1,252 points on February 7. 

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

Price Gauge
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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH-R TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Report: March 2025 (March 6, 2025)

KTX expects the index to continue weakening, setting new lows for the year, with the support levels for a potential rebound at 1,167/1,130 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) are the two names leading the race to become the intra-review SET50 ADD for the GULF-INTUCH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Report: March 2025 (March 6, 2025)

KTX expects the index to continue weakening, setting new lows for the year, with the support levels for a potential rebound at 1,167/1,130 points...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) are the two names leading the race to become the intra-review SET50 ADD for the GULF-INTUCH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

​In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

KTX Zoom - US Retail Sales and EU 4Q24 GDP Growth FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,280/1,273 points and the resistance at 1,295 (10-day EMA)/1,300...

Krungthai XSpring

In uncertain times, firms distributing cash as dividends are naturally investors' darlings. Screening large caps on min 6% div yield and future...