Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p><em>This week in StubWorld ...</em></p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage;</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> increases its questionable stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>; and</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s ramps up its buybacks.</li>
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<p>Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage;

Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) increases its questionable stake in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB); and

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s ramps up its buybacks.




Preceding my comments on these holdcos are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: TBS/Tokyo Electron, Intouch/Gulf, Jardines' Buybacks

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>We identified five interesting news/developments that could influence Thai equities:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Protests reach breaking point. </strong>The protest starts to show econmic impact, as protestors start to block malls in addition to public places (Palaces, government offices).</li>
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<strong>Thai Banks: Too little, too late?</strong><em>MCorp Review</em> observed several banks becoming very proactive. KBANK delivered the country's first bank perpetual bonds, while BAY invites behemoth BlackRock into the Kingdom, but if Brett King has anything to say, it's probably too late for the sector.</li>
<li>
<strong>Intuch looks into Point Exchange.</strong> Intuch's venture capital arm Invent invests an undisclosed sum into ChomChob, an innovative platform that allows cashing and exchange of loyalty points.</li>
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<strong>iPhone 12's uphill battle.</strong> Apple's long-awaited 5G iPhone finally arrives. Though Thailand is undergoing an economic recession, the tax subsidy on consumption may help sales.</li>
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<strong>Ngern Tid Lor's upcoming IPO </strong>in 2021 has sparked some interest as one of Thailand's large non-bank lenders. A sizable IPO with links to names such as BAY and private equity firm CVC.</li>
</ul>

We identified five interesting news/developments that could influence Thai equities:

Protests reach breaking point. The protest starts to show econmic impact, as protestors start to block malls in addition to public places (Palaces, government offices).

Thai Banks: Too little, too late?MCorp Review observed several banks becoming very proactive. KBANK delivered the country's first bank perpetual bonds, while BAY invites behemoth BlackRock into the Kingdom, but if Brett King has anything to say, it's probably too late for the sector.

Intuch looks into Point Exchange. Intuch's venture capital arm Invent invests an undisclosed sum into ChomChob, an innovative platform that allows cashing and exchange of loyalty points.

iPhone 12's uphill battle. Apple's long-awaited 5G iPhone finally arrives. Though Thailand is undergoing an economic recession, the tax subsidy on consumption may help sales.

Ngern Tid Lor's upcoming IPO in 2021 has sparked some interest as one of Thailand's large non-bank lenders. A sizable IPO with links to names such as BAY and private equity firm CVC.


Snippets #46: Thailand in Turmoil, Intuch Points Exchange

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
</div>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With Melco International Development (200 HK) languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. 



Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

<p>The recent merger with Line Man values Wongnai at US$110m and hence Ookbee at US$40m. In this review, we check out the other known VC investments of Intuch as well as Digital Gaming, a recent gaming platform in which AIS has invested with its partner at Singtel. Here's what we found:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Value accretion</strong>. The value added are immaterial, less than Bt1/sh for Intuch, but gives us a glimpse of the rather opaque VC business. Of these, the best project is arguably the microlender Peer Power, which charges interest rates in the 6-22% range.</li>
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<strong>Gaming. </strong>While we are generally bullish on gaming, we estimate that Digital Gaming destroyed some value for AIS given the acquisition price. The indirect impact on Intuch is negligible.</li>
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<strong>Limitations of assumption</strong>. Given the very limited information and Intuch's own non-controlling stake nature (only 25%), we make our assumptions conservative. As the case of Wongnai shows, there is room for positive surprise.</li>
<li>
<strong>A good mix conceptually. </strong>The important thing about Intuch's VC arm, apart from its size, is that it has a decent track record, and don't forget that with Bt200m budget annually, they will make more of these investments.</li>
</ul>

The recent merger with Line Man values Wongnai at US$110m and hence Ookbee at US$40m. In this review, we check out the other known VC investments of Intuch as well as Digital Gaming, a recent gaming platform in which AIS has invested with its partner at Singtel. Here's what we found:

Value accretion. The value added are immaterial, less than Bt1/sh for Intuch, but gives us a glimpse of the rather opaque VC business. Of these, the best project is arguably the microlender Peer Power, which charges interest rates in the 6-22% range.

Gaming. While we are generally bullish on gaming, we estimate that Digital Gaming destroyed some value for AIS given the acquisition price. The indirect impact on Intuch is negligible.

Limitations of assumption. Given the very limited information and Intuch's own non-controlling stake nature (only 25%), we make our assumptions conservative. As the case of Wongnai shows, there is room for positive surprise.

A good mix conceptually. The important thing about Intuch's VC arm, apart from its size, is that it has a decent track record, and don't forget that with Bt200m budget annually, they will make more of these investments.


Reality Check XXVI: How Much Are the Other Intuch VC Investments Worth?

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH-R TB)

StubWorld: TBS/Tokyo Electron, Intouch/Gulf, Jardines' Buybacks

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) outperforms as global carmakers face a chip shortage; Gulf Energy increases its questionable stake in Intouch; and Jardine...

David Blennerhassett

Snippets #46: Thailand in Turmoil, Intuch Points Exchange

The iPhone 12 finally arrives even as Thailand faces a historic protest. Meanwhile, Intuch finds a compelling points exchange startup, and Thai...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

his week in StubWorld ... Commercial real estate (in the world's most expensive city) - check. Hotel exposure - check. Marine services -...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Reality Check XXVI: How Much Are the Other Intuch VC Investments Worth?

<p>The recent acquisition of </p>

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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