Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Sri Trang Gloves Thailand  / Event-Driven

<p>Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) should announce the list of changes in the next few weeks and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.</p><p>With no changes made to the index methodology post the market consultation, we see three potential inclusions and exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> are high probability inclusions while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-commercial-asset-management-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28442:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB)</a> are high probability deletions from the index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> is a lower probability inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a> is the corresponding deletion.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> at rank 51 will just miss out on index inclusion at the June review despite the surge in the stock price due to the averaging process.</p>

Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX). The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) should announce the list of changes in the next few weeks and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.With no changes made to the index methodology post the market consultation, we see three potential inclusions and exclusions for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX).Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) are high probability inclusions while VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangkok Commercial Asset Management (BAM TB) are high probability deletions from the index.Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) is a lower probability inclusion and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB) is the corresponding deletion.KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) at rank 51 will just miss out on index inclusion at the June review despite the surge in the stock price due to the averaging process.

SET50 June Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Ends Today

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors


For the month of April, nine new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$36bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) / Oroco Resource Corp (OCO CN) 
Lithium mining
3.0
Merger
N/A



Orocobre - Galaxy: Merger of Equals
Orocobre/Galaxy Resources: On A Charge



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) 
Real estate
0.5
Merger
N/A


Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion


 



Hong Kong



Zhejiang Cangnan Instrument (1743 HK) 
Gas Meters
0.1
Cash Offer
15.2%


Zhejiang Cangnan (1743 HK): H-Share Buyback


 



India



Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 
 IT Services
1.1
Partial Offer
26.0%


Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option 


 



Japan



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
Petroleum-related
0.1
Tender Offer
12.5%


Aslead Capital Hostile Offer for Fuji Kosan (5009)


Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 
Advanced metals
4.0
Tender Offer
15.1%



Hitachi Metals – Limited Upside Despite Bain Capital News But Let’s Find the Offshoot Ideas
Bain Bids Up BIG For Hitachi Metals (5486) - Now We Wait



Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 
REIT
1.5
Tender Offer
13.3%



Starwood Hostile REIT Tender Launched
Invesco Office J-REIT Responds to Starwood's Hostile Offer
Starwood Rejection of Extension Means Full Hostile Tender



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 
Conglomerate
20.0





Toshiba – CVC Capital Partners Bid Highlights Value
Toshiba - The CEO Gets His MBO Bidder and Toshiba Will Get Interestinger
Gaming Out a CVC Bid for Toshiba - The Right Noises, The Wrong Price, and Toast
Toshiba - The King Is Dead, Long Live the King
How Much of Toshiba Is Owned By "Activists"?
CVC Suspending Its Bid Is Just That - The Cat Is Still Out Of the Bag
Toshiba – CVC Turns Tail but You Shouldn’t




 




Thailand



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 
Telco
5.4
VTO
11%


Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer


Source: Smartkarma Insights





Arguably, there is no firm Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP).
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~16%, with a year-to-date average of ~30% (66 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in April of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

19-Apr: Merger docs despatched




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

24-Apr: Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU)'s Scheme Doc has been released. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 1 June. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable. 




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

23-Apr: Bingo Industries (BIN AU) says CPE Capital and MIRA's due diligence has completed, but arrangements remain to be finalised.  27-Apr: Bingo Industries (BIN AU): Macquarie Cleans Up




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

6-Apr: Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU): This Is It 16-Apr: Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU)'s independent shareholder approved the Scheme. 81.55% of independent shareholders we in attendance, of which 99.03% approved the Scheme Resolution.




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

19-Apr: Crown Resorts (CWN AU) has announced that it has received an "unsolicited, preliminary, non-binding and indicative proposal from a company on behalf of funds managed and advised by Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., to provide a funding commitment of up to ~A$3.0bn to Crown via a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy-back some or all of the Crown shares which are held by Consolidated Press Holdings Pty Limited (“CPH”) on a selective basis. CPH currently has a shareholding of ~37% in Crown." Crown has not yet formed an opinion on the proposal. That stake is worth almost exactly A$3bn at the current price.




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

26-Apr:  Link Admin (LNK AU): PEXA Bidding




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

15-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): Massive Overbid by SS&amp;C, Now Vistra Has to Respond 27-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): More Competition Forces SS&amp;C to Bump  29-Apr: Mainstream (MAI AU): Three-In-A-Row! Bullseye!




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

29-Apr: McPherson (MCP AU): Arrotex Derails Kin's Offer




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

No April Update




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

6-Apr: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Busy Bees Delivers a Knock-Out Bid:




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

7-Apr: Roc bumps Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to A$1.16.  MAFM now has until the 14 April to match.
16-Apr: Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to A$1.18/unit. MAFM has matching rights until the 22 April.  23-Apr: Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Bumpity Bumpity Berry Bidding




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

No April Update




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 

21-Apr: WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) shareholders approved the Scheme. 87.5% of minorities turned up at the meeting, and 96.45% approved the Scheme resolution. Shares to be suspended at the close on the 26 April. Implementation to occur on 18 May. The special dividend has been approved.










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

12-Apr: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Zhuhai SASAC's MGO On Track
18-Apr: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s Composite has been delayed again until 30 April - on or before. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

2-Apr: PRC approval, a pre-condition, to the Offer remains outstanding in a monthly update from China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK).




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

19-Apr: The Scheme Doc is out for China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) - the SGM will be held on the 6 May. IFA says fair &amp; reasonable.




HKC Holdings (190 HK) 

27-Apr: HKC Holdings (190 HK): Quorum Quibbles




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

16-Apr: Independent shareholders of I.T Ltd (999 HK) overwhelmingly approved the scheme resolution. Cheques are expected to be despatched on the 7 May. Last day of trading is the 29 April.




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

9-Apr: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) has announced that the antitrust approval has been received from the State Administration for Market Regulation with respect to the Partial Offer.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

12-Apr: Shareholder approval received




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 

16-Apr: The Scheme Document together with the respective notices of the Court Meeting and the EGM to be held on Monday, 10 May 2021 and the relevant proxy forms will be despatched to the Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK)'s shareholders on 16 April. I don't see it on HKEx though.




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

2-Apr: The Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) / Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) transaction is understood to be under SAMR simple case review. 
16-Apr: Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)'s Composite Doc has been delayed until the 3 May, on or before. This was wholly expected - I have the 5 May in my timetable above. 
16-Apr: Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) completed the second tranche - the first tranche of 750k domestic shares was completed the day before -and now holds 65.04% of Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK). 
19-Apr: The % held by Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) in Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) is now 71.17%.




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

10-Apr: In its monthly update regarding a potential, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) 

16-Apr: Offer unconditional in all respects. closes on the 14 May.




Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 

21-Apr: Zhuhai Holdings (908 HK): SGM On The 18 May










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

5-Apr:  Vedanta (VEDL) Offer Coming To A Close: Watch For Antics 7-Apr: Final result appears to be 374.229mm shares confirmed and 3.291mm shares not yet confirmed for 377.52mm shares tendered in across 6,106 orders. This is a pro-ration of 100%. It tells you a LOT of people did not tender their Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) shares.










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
6-Apr: Just for kicks, Travis checked the Bloomberg download of TOPIX constituents and weights and noted that the number of shares of BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) is now 40.8119463mm shares against the level of 19.317465mm shares as of mid-March. That told him the TSE included the shares at month-end despite the index team telling us (Janaghan communicated on this but Travis was CCed) they would not make the share change at delisting if the notice was so short.Turns out they did. 



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
28 April: The two companies (including Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) announced all the corporate reorganisation measures which would be voted upon at the AGMs



Dynac Holdings Corporation (2675 JP) 
15 April: The tender offer is completed. Suntory reaches 93.51%.  23 April: Suntory executes Demand for Share Cash-Out and announces delisting for 28 May. 



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No April update




IGNIS Ltd (3689 JP) 

20-Apr: It may have been too light but in the end, people sold their shares of IGNIS Ltd (3689 JP) to Bain.  This is now done and the combination of Bain and the principals own two-thirds or more. This will get delisted and minorities will be squeezed out.




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

Throughout the month:  JAG and CIE joust in court, eventually the court sides with Murakami-san and the rights offer is cancelled.  27-Apr: City Index Eleventh OFFICIALLY Launches Next Japan Asia Group (3751) Hostile Tender Offer




Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) 

14-Apr: Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) shareholders, as expected, approved the Special Dividend of JPY 650/share (record date March 6th). This is on top of the 100 yen/share of regular plus special commemorative dividend which went ex- on March 30th. 




Shoko Co Ltd (8090 JP) 

16-Apr: The Shoko Co Ltd (8090 JP) deal had a minimum hurdle of 5.663mm shares.  It got 6.069mm shares, which is very low "clearance" vs the minimum. Lots of people obviously did not like this one. Combined with Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)'s remaining 14.97%, that gets them to about 70.4% of shares out. This is enough to push a squeezeout, but it may also be enough outstanding to be worthwhile thinking about an Appraisal Rights case. 




Takeei Corp (2151 JP) 

2-Apr: Takeei Corp (2151 JP) today announced it had bought back 19,600 shares for 23.5mm yen during the month of March. The company bought back 153,600 shares or about 0.7% of shares out in the program meant to buy back as much as 2.1% of shares out. The program is now ended










New Zealand


Comments (with links to insights)




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

19-Apr: Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAR's Bump Heads Off Third-Party Bidders









Philippines


Comments (with links to announcements)




2GO Group Inc (2GO PM) 

15-Apr: Tender Offer Report. The closing date is the 5 May.











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 

26-Apr: Offer closes




Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) 

12-Apr: At the Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) Special General Meeting today, 92% of shares were voted in favour of the acquisition by Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP). The SGX announced is here, and a Jardines infographic is here. Jardine Matheson: Strategic Buyout Done
29-Apr: Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent




Penguin International (PBS SP) 

21 April: final level of acceptances take the Controlling Shareholder to 80.05%




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

Throughout April, there have been a number of letters from shareholders who hold non-negligible quantities that they intend to vote against the Partial Offer. Link here.




Singapore Reinsurance (SRE SP) 

21 April: Offer declared unconditional.








Taiwan


Comments (with links to insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

5-Apr: The Squeezeout of the Remaining 46% of Jih Sun Financial








Thailand


Comments




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No April update






ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets. </p>
</div><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/emtek-emtk-ij-the-indonesian-digital-game-of-thrones" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> following the news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> has taken a 4% stake in the company. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-digitally-remastered-in-a-cyclical-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ) - Digitally Remastered in a Cyclical Recovery</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> after it released a solid 1Q2021 results and announced further inroads into the digital space.  </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-beverage-thbev-delayed-beer-ipo-and-undervaluation" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (Thbev): Delayed Beer IPO and Undervaluation</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Henry Soediarko</a> discusses<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s decision to call off the BeerCo IPO due to the rising COVID-19 cases in Bangkok.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/del-monte-pacific-monde-nissin-ipo-approved-moody-s-upgraded-debt-profile-all-positive" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Del Monte Pacific: Monde Nissin IPO Approved; Moody's Upgraded Debt Profile = All Positive</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP)</a> after the approval of the Monde Nissin IPO in the Philippines. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ifast-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17798:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monde-nissin-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Monde Nissin: Valuation First Look</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/arun-george" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Arun George</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM)</a> after the company received PSE listing approval for an IPO to raise up to PHP63bn ($1.3 billion) at the maximum IPO price of PHP17.50.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monde-nissin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32188:1" rel="noopener"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/intouch-holdings-gulf-s-inexplicable-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50483" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> takes a look at the poteta reasoning behind the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>. </p><p> In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-group-holdings-pricey-china-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings – Pricey China Deal</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS (DBS SP)</a> after it announced that it will acquire a 13% stake in the privately-held Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank (SRCB)  for CNY 5.29 bn (USD 814.3 mn). </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ifast-1q21-results-strong-earnings-momentum-continues" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IFast 1Q21 Results: Strong Earnings Momentum Continues</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/shifara-samsudeen-acma-cgma" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ifast-corp-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> iFAST (IFAST SP)</a> after the company released strong 1Q21 results. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ichi-terpene-products-to-be-the-key-highlight-in-2q21" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> ICHI: Terpene Products to Be the Key Highlight in 2Q21</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> re-iterates a BUY rating on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichitan-group-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Ichitan Group (ICHI TB)</a>, with a positive outlook for the 2Q21. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gulf-the-energy-giant-to-acquire-telecom-big-shot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GULF: The Energy Giant to Acquire Telecom Big Shot</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> which plans to make an offer for telecoms player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kbank-1q21-result-was-better-than-expected" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> KBANK: 1Q21 Result Was Better than Expected</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> posta solid set of 1Q2021 results.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/crc-expect-1q21-to-grow-qoq-and-yoy" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CRC: Expect 1Q21 to Grow QoQ and YoY</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> maintain a BUY rating for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB)</a> ahead of its 1Q2021 results. They still like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-retail-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28240:1" rel="noopener">Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB)</a> for its long-term outlook, given leading position in domestic retail industry, with diversified platforms and opportunities to expand its omni-channel retailing.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-expects-22-yoy-growth-in-fy3q21e" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MC: Expects 22%YoY Growth in FY3Q21E</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> expects 22%YoY growth in FY3Q21E driven by online sales. The company produces and distributes a variety of apparel products for men, women, boys, and girls under the brands Mc, U-P, mc mc, and Mc Lady.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/psl-anticipate-demand-for-seaborne-trade-to-slow-down-in-2q21" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> PSL: Anticipate Demand for Seaborne Trade to Slow Down in 2Q21</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> downgrades its rating for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/precious-shipping-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Precious Shipping (PSL TB)</a> to a sell rating in anticipation of slower numbers. </p><h3>Sector  Thematic</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-singapore-banks-gain-vs-hk-banks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50728" rel="noopener">DBS – Singapore Banks Gain Vs HK Banks</a>, banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> looks at the differing fortunes of Singapore and Hong Kong banks.</p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pakuwon-jati-event-flash-roadshowing-7nc4-notes-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Pakuwon Jati - Event Flash - Roadshowing 7NC4 Notes</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides a view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a>'s new USD Reg S 7NC4 Notes. P</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-china-hongqiao-guangzhou-r-f-properties-medco-energi" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties, Medco Energi</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Leonard Law, CFA</a> talks through his hold rating on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medco-energi-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)</a> after S&amp;P assigned B+ ratings on the company and revised the outlook from negative to stable.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-anton-oilfield-honghua-group-pakuwon-jati-tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Honghua Group, Pakuwon Jati, Tata Motors Ltd</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> maintains a hold rating on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a> following the pricing of its latest issue. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets. 
Equity Bottom UpIn Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Emtek (EMTK IJ) following the news that Grab has taken a 4% stake in the company. In Astra International (ASII IJ) - Digitally Remastered in a Cyclical Recovery, Angus Mackintosh reports back on Astra International (ASII IJ) after it released a solid 1Q2021 results and announced further inroads into the digital space.  In Thai Beverage (Thbev): Delayed Beer IPO and Undervaluation, Henry Soediarko discusses Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s decision to call off the BeerCo IPO due to the rising COVID-19 cases in Bangkok.In Del Monte Pacific: Monde Nissin IPO Approved; Moody's Upgraded Debt Profile = All Positive, Nicolas Van Broekhoven returns to look at Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) after the approval of the Monde Nissin IPO in the Philippines. In Monde Nissin: Valuation First Look, Arun George returns to look at Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) after the company received PSE listing approval for an IPO to raise up to PHP63bn ($1.3 billion) at the maximum IPO price of PHP17.50.In Intouch Holdings: Gulf's Inexplicable Offer,David Blennerhassett takes a look at the poteta reasoning behind the Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) offer for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB).  In DBS Group Holdings – Pricey China Deal, Thomas J. Monaco reports back on DBS (DBS SP) after it announced that it will acquire a 13% stake in the privately-held Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank (SRCB)  for CNY 5.29 bn (USD 814.3 mn). In IFast 1Q21 Results: Strong Earnings Momentum Continues, Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA reports back on iFAST (IFAST SP) after the company released strong 1Q21 results. In ICHI: Terpene Products to Be the Key Highlight in 2Q21, Country Group re-iterates a BUY rating on Ichitan Group (ICHI TB), with a positive outlook for the 2Q21. GULF: The Energy Giant to Acquire Telecom Big Shot, Country Group reports back on Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) which plans to make an offer for telecoms player Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB).In KBANK: 1Q21 Result Was Better than Expected, Country Group returns to look at Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) posta solid set of 1Q2021 results.In CRC: Expect 1Q21 to Grow QoQ and YoY, Country Group maintain a BUY rating for Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) ahead of its 1Q2021 results. They still like Central Retail Corp Ltd (CRC TB) for its long-term outlook, given leading position in domestic retail industry, with diversified platforms and opportunities to expand its omni-channel retailing.In MC: Expects 22%YoY Growth in FY3Q21E, Country Group returns to look at MC Group Pcl (MC TB) expects 22%YoY growth in FY3Q21E driven by online sales. The company produces and distributes a variety of apparel products for men, women, boys, and girls under the brands Mc, U-P, mc mc, and Mc Lady.In PSL: Anticipate Demand for Seaborne Trade to Slow Down in 2Q21, Country Group downgrades its rating for Precious Shipping (PSL TB) to a sell rating in anticipation of slower numbers. Sector  ThematicIn DBS – Singapore Banks Gain Vs HK Banks, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush looks at the differing fortunes of Singapore and Hong Kong banks.Credit InsightsIn Pakuwon Jati - Event Flash - Roadshowing 7NC4 Notes, credit specialist Trung Nguyen provides a view on Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)'s new USD Reg S 7NC4 Notes. PIn Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Guangzhou R&amp;F Properties, Medco Energi, credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA talks through his hold rating on Medco Energi (MEDC IJ) after S&amp;P assigned B+ ratings on the company and revised the outlook from negative to stable.In Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Honghua Group, Pakuwon Jati, Tata Motors Ltd, Trung Nguyen maintains a hold rating on Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) following the pricing of its latest issue. 

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo, Digital Astra, and Monde Nissin

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The spread to terms on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> narrows as completion appears a formality.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...



The spread to terms on Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s Offer for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) narrows as completion appears a formality.



Preceding my comments on Intouch and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Intouch/Gulf, Yodogawa/Sheng Yu Steel, Pan Asia Chemical/Taichung Commercial

<p>On 19 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> made a conditional voluntary tender offer for all shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> that it did not hold at THB 65/share.</p><p>In the event that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s tender offer results in them holding over 50% of the voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>, it also announced that it would make a downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> at THB 122.86/share, while requesting the SEC for a waiver of the obligation to make a tender offer for all shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB)</a>.</p><p>The record date to attend the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> shareholder EGM is 14 May and the EGM will be held on 25 June.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> is a large shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> and media reports indicate that they will not tender their shares. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a> said that they view their stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> as strategic investments.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">Kce Electronics Pub (KCE TB)</a> is the most likely replacement candidate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>.</p>

On 19 April, Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) made a conditional voluntary tender offer for all shares in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) that it did not hold at THB 65/share.In the event that Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s tender offer results in them holding over 50% of the voting rights in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB), it also announced that it would make a downstream offer for Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) at THB 122.86/share, while requesting the SEC for a waiver of the obligation to make a tender offer for all shares of Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).The record date to attend the Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) shareholder EGM is 14 May and the EGM will be held on 25 June.Singtel (ST SP) is a large shareholder in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) and media reports indicate that they will not tender their shares. Singtel (ST SP) said that they view their stakes in Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) as strategic investments.Kce Electronics Pub (KCE TB) is the most likely replacement candidate for Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX).

GULF Offer for INTUCH: Index Implications

Thailand

Intouch Holdings Public Company Limited is a holding company that invests in diversified telecommunication and media and advertising businesses.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides television broadcasting, cellular phone and wireless services.

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Intouch Holdings (INTUCH-R TB)

SET50 June Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Ends Today

Today is the last day of the review period for the June rebal. We see STGT, IRPC and STA as adds and VGI, BAM and TOA as deletes. KCE could be...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~13%, with a year-to-date average of ~30% (66 deals).

David Blennerhassett

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo, Digital Astra, and Monde Nissin

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South...

Angus Mackintosh

StubWorld: Intouch/Gulf, Yodogawa/Sheng Yu Steel, Pan Asia Chemical/Taichung Commercial

Trading at a 1.6%/4.0% gross/annualised spread. I'd wait for any weakness before entering (if playing the arb) at ~4% gross spread to terms, where...

David Blennerhassett

GULF Offer for INTUCH: Index Implications

GULF has made a conditional voluntary tender offer for shares in INTUCH that it does not hold at THB 65/share. KCE could enter the SET50 index at...

Brian Freitas

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