Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, <em>but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns</em>.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We screen 30 European banks for their core profitability and their credit quality and coverage post 2Q21 results</li>
<li>The aim is to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver sustainably higher dividends going forward</li>
<li>We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality</li>
<li>We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-banking-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21009:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Banking (LLOY LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bankinter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21253:1" rel="noopener">Bankinter SA (BKT SM)</a> and stick with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-agricole-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21373:1" rel="noopener">Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN SW)</a> from the 1Q21 review</li>
<li>We are cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> </li>
<li>Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected cost of risk, opex and fee generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenue generation with opex control leading to higher dividend prospects</li>
</ul>


We screen 30 European banks for their core profitability and their credit quality and coverage post 2Q21 results
The aim is to identify banks that are good value and have potential to deliver sustainably higher dividends going forward
We use a number of metrics including pre-provision and post-provision profit, cost of risk and credit quality
We highlight Lloyds Banking (LLOY LN) and Bankinter SA (BKT SM) and stick with Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN SW) from the 1Q21 review
We are cautious on Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM) and Standard Chartered (STAN LN) 
Risks to our view include, for our bullish calls, worse than expected cost of risk, opex and fee generation; for our bear calls, better than expected revenue generation with opex control leading to higher dividend prospects


European & UK Banks; Screening for Investment Opportunities

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CASA’s enhanced offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credito-valtellinese-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21175:1" rel="noopener">Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM)</a> confirms the appetite for M&amp;A in Southern Europe, and Italy in particular</li>
<li>We expect Italian M&amp;A to be largely intra-country, as the key factors driving consolidation is the need for greater domestic scale given the lower for longer interest rates, especially in Europe, as well as the march of digital banking globally</li>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a>-UBI, and now potentially the conclusion of CASA Italia-CreVal, the focus is on the future of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-siena" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)</a> </li>
<li>A combination between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bper-banca-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21165:1" rel="noopener">BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM)</a> now seems less likely; this implies that Banco BPM is a potential contender, once again, to combine with BMPS; the latter has largely de-risked its balance sheet, even if its core capital ratio is low</li>
<li>We would see a BPM-BMPS union as a major positive catalyst for a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a>  re-rating; even if Unicredit were to acquire BMPS, we believe that, at current valuations, a lot of the risks are discounted</li>
<li>Risks to our positive Unicredit view include Unicredit’s acquisition of BMPS on unfavourable terms, as well as worse than expected organic performance of revenue growth, given the challenging interest rate environment</li>
</ul>


CASA’s enhanced offer for Credito Valtellinese SpA (CVAL IM) confirms the appetite for M&amp;A in Southern Europe, and Italy in particular
We expect Italian M&amp;A to be largely intra-country, as the key factors driving consolidation is the need for greater domestic scale given the lower for longer interest rates, especially in Europe, as well as the march of digital banking globally
After Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)-UBI, and now potentially the conclusion of CASA Italia-CreVal, the focus is on the future of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM) 
A combination between Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM) and BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM) now seems less likely; this implies that Banco BPM is a potential contender, once again, to combine with BMPS; the latter has largely de-risked its balance sheet, even if its core capital ratio is low
We would see a BPM-BMPS union as a major positive catalyst for a UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)  re-rating; even if Unicredit were to acquire BMPS, we believe that, at current valuations, a lot of the risks are discounted
Risks to our positive Unicredit view include Unicredit’s acquisition of BMPS on unfavourable terms, as well as worse than expected organic performance of revenue growth, given the challenging interest rate environment


Southern Europe Banks: Focus on Italian Banks M&A

<ul>
<li>BPCE, the co-operative banking group and majority shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/natixis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21493:1" rel="noopener">Natixis SA (KN FP)</a> , is offering €4 per share to 29.3% owned by Natixis minority shareholders</li>
<li>Since the replacement of Francois Riahi as CEO by Nicolas Namais last August, Natixis has been brought under closer control by BPCE</li>
<li>We believe that this move will tighten BPCE control and accelerate the restructuring in the asset management and investment banking arenas</li>
<li>Even though this deal is a specific case, in broader terms, it reflects there is appetite for banking deals at current valuations, and that European bank M&amp;A is largely focused on intra-country deals, as has recently been seen in Spain and Italy</li>
<li>A successful offer would result in Natixis being delisting and it implies a “take out” PBV ratio of 0.7x and PE multiple of 15.8x for 2021, based on consensus estimates, which should be appealing to minorities</li>
<li>Risks to our constructive views on European banks M&amp;A prospects include regulatory hurdles, at the national and supra-national levels, as well as capital constraints and credit quality challenges</li>
</ul>


BPCE, the co-operative banking group and majority shareholder of Natixis SA (KN FP) , is offering €4 per share to 29.3% owned by Natixis minority shareholders
Since the replacement of Francois Riahi as CEO by Nicolas Namais last August, Natixis has been brought under closer control by BPCE
We believe that this move will tighten BPCE control and accelerate the restructuring in the asset management and investment banking arenas
Even though this deal is a specific case, in broader terms, it reflects there is appetite for banking deals at current valuations, and that European bank M&amp;A is largely focused on intra-country deals, as has recently been seen in Spain and Italy
A successful offer would result in Natixis being delisting and it implies a “take out” PBV ratio of 0.7x and PE multiple of 15.8x for 2021, based on consensus estimates, which should be appealing to minorities
Risks to our constructive views on European banks M&amp;A prospects include regulatory hurdles, at the national and supra-national levels, as well as capital constraints and credit quality challenges


Natixis (KN FP) - BPCE: European Bank Consolidation Rolls On

Italy

Intesa Sanpaolo attracts deposits and offers banking and financial services. The Bank offers consumer credit, asset management, Internet banking, merchant banking, securities brokerage, factoring, and lease financing services, and manages mutual funds.  Intesa Sanpaolo operates branches throughout Italy, and offices elsewhere in Europe, Asia, and the United States.

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Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

European & UK Banks; Screening for Investment Opportunities

We screen banks’ core earnings & credit quality to identify banks that are good value & can deliver higher dividends - we like Lloyds, BankInter,...

Victor Galliano

Southern Europe Banks: Focus on Italian Banks M&A

The prospect of Italian bank sector M&A in Italy is overly penalizing Unicredit shares for the risk of a BMPS deal. With the BPM-BPER union called...

Victor Galliano

Natixis (KN FP) - BPCE: European Bank Consolidation Rolls On

Even if this case is specific , BPCE's offer for Natixis shows that European bank consolidation continues, mainly on an intra-national level; we...

Victor Galliano

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