Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

International Distributions Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.</li>
<li>IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.</li>
<li>A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.


<ul>
<li>On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a> agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.</li>
<li>The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).</li>
<li>Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.</li>
</ul>


On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.
The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).
Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.


EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

<ul>
<li>The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a>  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.</li>
<li>The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.</li>
<li>The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.</li>
</ul>


The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for International Distributions Services (IDS LN)  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.
The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.
The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.


EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail sets sights on becoming the UK’s biggest parcel locker provider • Triodios Bank | IPO likely to be delayed until June • PostNL / IDS | Conservative leader calling for reassessment of IDS takeover approval • Dutch banking sector | strong lobby for a new national investment bank • E-commerce sector | Temu aims for Europe to become its largest market</li>
</ul>


In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail sets sights on becoming the UK’s biggest parcel locker provider • Triodios Bank | IPO likely to be delayed until June • PostNL / IDS | Conservative leader calling for reassessment of IDS takeover approval • Dutch banking sector | strong lobby for a new national investment bank • E-commerce sector | Temu aims for Europe to become its largest market


ING Groep NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

United Kingdom

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

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International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Green Light from British Government

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ING Groep NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail sets sights on becoming the UK’s biggest parcel locker provider • Triodios Bank | IPO likely to be delayed...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Green Light from British Government

​UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

​The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ING Groep NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • InPost | Royal Mail sets sights on becoming the UK’s biggest parcel locker provider • Triodios Bank | IPO likely to be delayed...

The IDEA!

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...