External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

InterContinental Hotels Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IHG has experienced consistent growth and profitability due to its asset-light model, strong brand portfolio, and loyal customer base</li><li>The company is focused on expanding its presence in key markets like China and the Americas to drive long-term value for investors</li><li>The recent market pullback provides an attractive opportunity for investors to capitalize on IHG's growth potential at a low-risk, high-reward valuation</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

IHG has experienced consistent growth and profitability due to its asset-light model, strong brand portfolio, and loyal customer baseThe company is focused on expanding its presence in key markets like China and the Americas to drive long-term value for investorsThe recent market pullback provides an attractive opportunity for investors to capitalize on IHG's growth potential at a low-risk, high-reward valuationThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Intercontinental Hotels Grp (IHG) - Wednesday, Aug 7, 2024

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>It is difficult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.</li>
<li>Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.</li>
</ul>


It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

<ul>
<li>A partial disposal of Club Med is positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>. The market is speculating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-investment-ltd-sing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33774:1" rel="noopener">CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP)</a> is paying EUR500m for a 20-30% stake.</li>
<li>Club Med generated 91.7% of its 1H24 operating profit. The rumoured valuation will boost its value by HK$6.9/share, 1.2x of the share price if true.</li>
<li>We see reasons for such disposal, and if happens, this will align the stock's valuation to international peers - 26.2x for FY24, vs. its 11.3x currently.</li>
</ul>


A partial disposal of Club Med is positive for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK). The market is speculating CapitaLand Investment /Sing (CLI SP) is paying EUR500m for a 20-30% stake.
Club Med generated 91.7% of its 1H24 operating profit. The rumoured valuation will boost its value by HK$6.9/share, 1.2x of the share price if true.
We see reasons for such disposal, and if happens, this will align the stock's valuation to international peers - 26.2x for FY24, vs. its 11.3x currently.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

United Kingdom

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns and operates a portfolio of hotel businesses. The Company manages hotel loyalty and priority club rewards programs. InterContinental Hotels Group serves customers worldwide.

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InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG US)

Intercontinental Hotels Grp (IHG) - Wednesday, Aug 7, 2024

The company is focused on expanding its presence in key markets like China and the Americas to drive long-term value for investors

Value Investors Club

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

Fosun Tourism remains suspended, and we are awaiting an announcement. Speculation is that it involves privatisation by its parent, Fosun Intl....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intercontinental Hotels Grp (IHG) - Wednesday, Aug 7, 2024

The company is focused on expanding its presence in key markets like China and the Americas to drive long-term value for investors

Value Investors Club

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Giving In

​Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...

Osbert Tang, CFA

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Is Club Med Disposal Happening?

Fosun Tourism remains suspended, and we are awaiting an announcement. Speculation is that it involves privatisation by its parent, Fosun Intl....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fosun Tourism faces challenges in returning to peak and IPO share prices, making the buyback proposal a good exit opportunity due to barriers like...