Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 February, WeBull announced a merger with SK Growth Opportunities SPAC on NASDAQ. The proposed transaction represented an implied pro forma enterprise value of about $7.3 billion. </li>
<li>WeBull had 4.3 million funded accounts and  $8.2bn in assets under custody at end of 2023. In comparison, Robinhood had 23.4mn funded accounts and $102.6bn in assets under custody. </li>
<li>Given the numerous material concerns about this deal, we would avoid it. There are no financials including income statement and balance sheet of WeBull in the prospectus. </li>
</ul>


On 28 February, WeBull announced a merger with SK Growth Opportunities SPAC on NASDAQ. The proposed transaction represented an implied pro forma enterprise value of about $7.3 billion. 
WeBull had 4.3 million funded accounts and  $8.2bn in assets under custody at end of 2023. In comparison, Robinhood had 23.4mn funded accounts and $102.6bn in assets under custody. 
Given the numerous material concerns about this deal, we would avoid it. There are no financials including income statement and balance sheet of WeBull in the prospectus. 


A Merger Between WeBull and SK Growth Opportunities Corp in NASDAQ

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a> recently became eligible for addition to S&amp;P500 following the company's <a href="https://ir.doordash.com/news/news-details/2025/DoorDash-Releases-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">positive earnings announcement</a> on 11 February 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are the main addition by transition candidates. APP is number one due to significant long-term mcap score.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is the main addition by migration candidate and the expected addition by replacement if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> acquisition is completed prior to the March review.</li>
</ul>



DoorDash (DASH US) recently became eligible for addition to S&amp;P500 following the company's positive earnings announcement on 11 February 2025.

AppLovin (APP US), DoorDash (DASH US), and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are the main addition by transition candidates. APP is number one due to significant long-term mcap score.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is the main addition by migration candidate and the expected addition by replacement if Capital One's acquisition is completed prior to the March review.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a> was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)</a> were overlooked again.</li>
<li>There will be more same-way flow for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 6 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 14 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the March rebalance.

DoorDash (DASH US) was newly eligible after meeting the profitability criterion, while AppLovin (APP US), Coinbase Global (COIN US) and Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) were overlooked again.
There will be more same-way flow for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) adds and deletes from the Select Sector index trackers.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>On 13 June, the Korean government announced that it will extend a ban on short selling stocks in Korea until end of March 2025. </li>
<li>For now, the government has not given a 100% go-ahead on the end of the ban on short selling stocks starting 1 April 2025. </li>
<li>However, in our view, the government is likely to allow short selling stocks in Korea once again, sometime in 2Q 2025. </li>
</ul>


On 13 June, the Korean government announced that it will extend a ban on short selling stocks in Korea until end of March 2025. 
For now, the government has not given a 100% go-ahead on the end of the ban on short selling stocks starting 1 April 2025. 
However, in our view, the government is likely to allow short selling stocks in Korea once again, sometime in 2Q 2025. 


Ban on Short Selling Stocks in Korea Extended Until March 2025

United States

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. is an automated global electronic market maker and broker specializing in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures, and foreign exchange instruments.

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Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)

A Merger Between WeBull and SK Growth Opportunities Corp in NASDAQ

On 28 February, WeBull announced a merger with SK Growth Opportunities SPAC on NASDAQ. The proposed transaction represented an implied pro forma...

Douglas Kim

S&P500: DoorDash Knocks

Announced additions: DASH, WSM , EXE, TKO. 2/3 of top addition picks materialized. EXE, TKO I believe were added by force due to a large number of...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: DASH In as Stability Trumps Volatility

There are many changes for the SnP500/400/600 indices in March. The index committee has overlooked high vol stocks. There will be more same-way...

Brian Freitas

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Ban on Short Selling Stocks in Korea Extended Until March 2025

On 13 June, the Korean government announced it will extend a ban on short selling stocks in Korea until end of March 2025. The government is likely...

Douglas Kim

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