Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 55.6%/ 45.6%/ NT$7.82/ 36.2% in 1Q22. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$17.6-18.2bn/ 56-58%/ OPM: 45-47% in 2Q22 guidance.</li>
<li>Moving into 2Q22, TSMC expects their business to be supported by HPC, Automotive related demands, partially offset by smartphone seasonality.</li>
<li>The HPC platform is the strongest growing platform and the largest contribution to TSMC’s growth in 2022.</li>
</ul>


The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 55.6%/ 45.6%/ NT$7.82/ 36.2% in 1Q22. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$17.6-18.2bn/ 56-58%/ OPM: 45-47% in 2Q22 guidance.
Moving into 2Q22, TSMC expects their business to be supported by HPC, Automotive related demands, partially offset by smartphone seasonality.
The HPC platform is the strongest growing platform and the largest contribution to TSMC’s growth in 2022.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): 1Q22 Beats Our Forecast; 2Q22 Revenue Is in Line, and GM/OPM Beats Forecast

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>We like ServiceNow into earnings. Strong 4Q21 results poised to continue, positive earnings revisions and negative stock action makes this a safe large cap bet.</li>
<li>Facebook intrigues us...incredible potential risk/reward if you think this company shouldn't trade at 10x forward EV/EBITDA. Lots of fear on the name, but reacceleration of revenues and earnings coming.</li>
<li>Don't like the Paypal or Intel setups. Paypal's CFO departure signal he thinks shareholder returns will be weak in the next year or two. Believe him.</li>
</ul>


We like ServiceNow into earnings. Strong 4Q21 results poised to continue, positive earnings revisions and negative stock action makes this a safe large cap bet.
Facebook intrigues us...incredible potential risk/reward if you think this company shouldn't trade at 10x forward EV/EBITDA. Lots of fear on the name, but reacceleration of revenues and earnings coming.
Don't like the Paypal or Intel setups. Paypal's CFO departure signal he thinks shareholder returns will be weak in the next year or two. Believe him.


<ul>
<li>We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.</li>
<li>We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  </li>
<li>TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.</li>
</ul>


We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%.
We highlighted TSMC was considering to increase the wafer price nearly 2 months ago, but TSMC has still not made the final decision yet.  
TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for for 150k/month within 4Q22. We think the new iPhone 14 would request more than half of the capacity.


TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.</li>
<li>Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.</li>
</ul>


Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.
Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.
Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.


United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): 1Q22 Beats Our Forecast; 2Q22 Revenue Is in Line, and GM/OPM Beats Forecast

The revenue/ GM/ OPM/ EPS/ ROE is USD$17.57b/ 55.6%/ 45.6%/ NT$7.82/ 36.2% in 1Q22. The revenue/ GMO/ OPM is US$17.6-18.2bn/ 56-58%/ OPM: 45-47% in...

Patrick Liao

TMT Pre-1Q Earnings Thoughts

Some thoughts about potentially good earnings setups (ServiceNow and Facebook) vs. not so good setups (Paypal and Intel) for the first wave of TMT...

Aaron Gabin

TSMC (TSM.US; 2330.TT): The Outlook Is Positive in 2Q22, and Wafer Price Lift Is Not Decided Yet.

We expect TSMC will grow ~4.7% QoQ in 2Q22, and the revenue/GM/OPG is around US$17.7bn/55.1%/43.8%. TSMC 4/5nm capacity will be ready for 150k...

Patrick Liao

Charts to Watch.

Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of...

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