External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Integrated Research (IR) provided an FY24 trading update and effectively narrowed the previously provided guidance ranges to the top end: Revenue up 17% to b/w $82- 84m (vs previous $76-85m and BPe $78.2m); EBITDA up 90-107% to b/w $23-25m (vs previous $18-25m and BPe $18.8m); and Total contract value up 20-23% to $82- 84m (vs previous $75-84m).</li><li>The company also said cash at 30 June was $31.9m which was ahead of our forecast of $29.4m.</li><li>IR also provided some outlook commentary for FY25 and said: Renewals are expected to be weighted to the second half; The full year will rely more on new business than in FY24; and The company will review its resourcing and capital plans mindful of the need to invest in new products for incremental growth but also the strength of the Balance Sheet. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Integrated Research (IR) provided an FY24 trading update and effectively narrowed the previously provided guidance ranges to the top end: Revenue up 17% to b/w $82- 84m (vs previous $76-85m and BPe $78.2m); EBITDA up 90-107% to b/w $23-25m (vs previous $18-25m and BPe $18.8m); and Total contract value up 20-23% to $82- 84m (vs previous $75-84m).The company also said cash at 30 June was $31.9m which was ahead of our forecast of $29.4m.IR also provided some outlook commentary for FY25 and said: Renewals are expected to be weighted to the second half; The full year will rely more on new business than in FY24; and The company will review its resourcing and capital plans mindful of the need to invest in new products for incremental growth but also the strength of the Balance Sheet. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Integrated Research (IRI): Strong Turnaround

Director, RaaS Research Group, Research as a Service (RaaS)

Research as a Service (RaaS)

Director, RaaS Research Group

Insightful Financial Models and Research Analysis

Connect to the right investors through smart and insightful financial models and research analysis.

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<h2>Integrated Research Ltd</h2>
<h3>New integrations: aims to regain momentum in ‘23</h3>
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<p>Integrated Research Ltd (ASX:IRI) is a software company providing performance management and analytics for business-critical systems globally. It has three product lines: (1) ‘Collaborate’ for unified communications, collaboration and contact centre environments; (2) ‘Transact’ for payment transactions; and (3) ‘Infrastructure’ for IT network infrastructure. IRI’s ~600 clients include &gt;25% of the Fortune 500 and many are long-standing (&gt;15 years). Historically, IRI’s communications products served ‘on- premises’ environments (e.g. supporting Cisco, Avaya and Skype systems), while its payments services focused on bank and payments processor infrastructure as well as transactions data and analytics for card payments. Since FY20, IRI has been in a period of strategic transition reflecting material investment in new product development to meet customer needs and capitalise upon market trends. Its new offerings encompass: (1) Cloud solutions; (2) Hybrid (on-premise/cloud) solutions (e.g. monitoring and troubleshooting for remote working environments using Microsoft Teams, Zoom); (3) Software-as-a-Service (‘SaaS’) subscriptions (to reduce on-premise product skew); and (4) Payments solutions for real-time and high-value payments (given the increased volume of cashless payments). This new product development has been ‘self-funded’ via cashflows. However, IRI’s FY22 operating and financial performance (in North America and Europe) fell below its original expectations and KPIs due to delayed or cancelled customer purchasing decisions and some internal sales execution issues in H2. It has recently appointed new key personnel in North America and Europe and “remains confident that over the longer-term, its business- critical products and solutions will return the Company to growth.”.</p>
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<h3>Business model</h3>
<p>The majority of IRI’s revenue is generated from its Collaborate offering which serves 5.8m users (55% in FY22) with the remainder from Transact (13%), Infrastructure (21%) and professional services (11%). Geographically, FY22 revenue was derived from Americas (61%), Europe (15%), and APAC (24%). Traditionally, IRI’s software has been deployed at client premises under a private infrastructure model and, in turn, licence revenue has been recognised upfront (at commencement of ~three-four year non-cancellable contracts) leading to somewhat ‘lumpy’ reported revenue even though clients make annual licence fee payments throughout the term, while the attached maintenance fees have been recognised and paid annually. Given IRI has started to derive SaaS revenue (recognised over subscription period), it now discloses additional metrics of: (1) Pro-forma (‘underlying’) revenue which is closely aligned to cash receipts ($79.8m vs. $75.5m in FY22); and (2) Total Contract Value of ‘in year’ contract signings for new and renewal business.</p>
<h3>Solid FY22 cashflows despite lower-than-expected revenue</h3>
<p>IRI recently disclosed the following FY22 financial information: (1) $62.9m reported (statutory) revenue (down 20% on pcp); (2) $79.8m pro-forma revenue (down 4% on pcp) of which 85% is recurring; (3) $56.7m Total Contract Value (down 25% yoy); (4) $8.5m reported EBITDA and $24.5m pro-forma EBITDA; (5) $1.5m net profit (including $4.0m tax benefit); (6) $16.9m operating cashflows and $5.1m free cashflows (after $11.5m capitalised development spend); and (7) $12.3m net cash (no debt), up from $5.5m at 30 June 2021.</p>
<h3>Trading at sizeable discount to Splunk and ASX All Tech Index</h3>
<p>IRI is trading at 0.9x EV/Revenue and 5.5x EV/EBITDA for FY23f (Source: Refinitiv). Whilst it is significantly larger (US$2.7b revenue), Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) provides an indicative valuation yardstick given it has competing products. IRI is trading at a sizeable discount to SPLK’s forward EV/Revenue of 4.2x and EV/EBITDA of 31x. The ASX All Tech Index (XTX) provides another valuation metric – with IRI also trading at a significant discount to XTX’s 12-month mean forward EV/Revenue of 3.3x and EV/EBITDA of 17x.</p>
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Integrated Research Ltd
New integrations: aims to regain momentum in ‘23




Integrated Research Ltd (ASX:IRI) is a software company providing performance management and analytics for business-critical systems globally. It has three product lines: (1) ‘Collaborate’ for unified communications, collaboration and contact centre environments; (2) ‘Transact’ for payment transactions; and (3) ‘Infrastructure’ for IT network infrastructure. IRI’s ~600 clients include &gt;25% of the Fortune 500 and many are long-standing (&gt;15 years). Historically, IRI’s communications products served ‘on- premises’ environments (e.g. supporting Cisco, Avaya and Skype systems), while its payments services focused on bank and payments processor infrastructure as well as transactions data and analytics for card payments. Since FY20, IRI has been in a period of strategic transition reflecting material investment in new product development to meet customer needs and capitalise upon market trends. Its new offerings encompass: (1) Cloud solutions; (2) Hybrid (on-premise/cloud) solutions (e.g. monitoring and troubleshooting for remote working environments using Microsoft Teams, Zoom); (3) Software-as-a-Service (‘SaaS’) subscriptions (to reduce on-premise product skew); and (4) Payments solutions for real-time and high-value payments (given the increased volume of cashless payments). This new product development has been ‘self-funded’ via cashflows. However, IRI’s FY22 operating and financial performance (in North America and Europe) fell below its original expectations and KPIs due to delayed or cancelled customer purchasing decisions and some internal sales execution issues in H2. It has recently appointed new key personnel in North America and Europe and “remains confident that over the longer-term, its business- critical products and solutions will return the Company to growth.”.




Business model
The majority of IRI’s revenue is generated from its Collaborate offering which serves 5.8m users (55% in FY22) with the remainder from Transact (13%), Infrastructure (21%) and professional services (11%). Geographically, FY22 revenue was derived from Americas (61%), Europe (15%), and APAC (24%). Traditionally, IRI’s software has been deployed at client premises under a private infrastructure model and, in turn, licence revenue has been recognised upfront (at commencement of ~three-four year non-cancellable contracts) leading to somewhat ‘lumpy’ reported revenue even though clients make annual licence fee payments throughout the term, while the attached maintenance fees have been recognised and paid annually. Given IRI has started to derive SaaS revenue (recognised over subscription period), it now discloses additional metrics of: (1) Pro-forma (‘underlying’) revenue which is closely aligned to cash receipts ($79.8m vs. $75.5m in FY22); and (2) Total Contract Value of ‘in year’ contract signings for new and renewal business.
Solid FY22 cashflows despite lower-than-expected revenue
IRI recently disclosed the following FY22 financial information: (1) $62.9m reported (statutory) revenue (down 20% on pcp); (2) $79.8m pro-forma revenue (down 4% on pcp) of which 85% is recurring; (3) $56.7m Total Contract Value (down 25% yoy); (4) $8.5m reported EBITDA and $24.5m pro-forma EBITDA; (5) $1.5m net profit (including $4.0m tax benefit); (6) $16.9m operating cashflows and $5.1m free cashflows (after $11.5m capitalised development spend); and (7) $12.3m net cash (no debt), up from $5.5m at 30 June 2021.
Trading at sizeable discount to Splunk and ASX All Tech Index
IRI is trading at 0.9x EV/Revenue and 5.5x EV/EBITDA for FY23f (Source: Refinitiv). Whilst it is significantly larger (US$2.7b revenue), Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) provides an indicative valuation yardstick given it has competing products. IRI is trading at a sizeable discount to SPLK’s forward EV/Revenue of 4.2x and EV/EBITDA of 31x. The ASX All Tech Index (XTX) provides another valuation metric – with IRI also trading at a significant discount to XTX’s 12-month mean forward EV/Revenue of 3.3x and EV/EBITDA of 17x.













Integrated Research Ltd - New Integrations: Aims to Regain Momentum in ‘23

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p><p>The review period for the rebalance ends on 20 August, so there are only 3 days to go in the review period with 124 days completed.</p><p>For the ASX100, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> as a potential deletion following the reduction in its free float following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s tender offer. This is the possibility of another change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beach-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:795:1" rel="noopener">Beach Energy (BPT AU)</a> in the index.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> as potential inclusions, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> are potential deletions.</p><p>For the ASX300, potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betmakers-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25489:1" rel="noopener">BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novonix-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29093:1" rel="noopener">Novonix Ltd (NVX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dubber-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15396:1" rel="noopener">Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>, while potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bubs-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6296:1" rel="noopener">Bubs Australia (BUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integrated-research-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6744:1" rel="noopener">Integrated Research (IRI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">Maca Ltd (MLD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-developments-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18644:1" rel="noopener">Medical Developments International (MVP AU)</a>.</p><p>The impact is quite large on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> expected changes while there could be a large impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a> if it is included in the ASX100.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.The review period for the rebalance ends on 20 August, so there are only 3 days to go in the review period with 124 days completed.For the ASX100, we see Boral Ltd (BLD AU) as a potential deletion following the reduction in its free float following Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s tender offer. This is the possibility of another change with Steadfast (SDF AU) replacing Beach Energy (BPT AU) in the index.For the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), we see Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU), Sealink Travel (SLK AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) as potential inclusions, while Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU), G8 Education (GEM AU) and Westgold Resources (WGX AU) are potential deletions.For the ASX300, potential inclusions are Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Imugene Ltd (IMU AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU), Novonix Ltd (NVX AU), Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU), Johns Lyng (JLG AU) and Strike Energy (STX AU), while potential deletions are Bubs Australia (BUB AU), Synlait Milk (SML NZ), Integrated Research (IRI AU), Maca Ltd (MLD AU) and Medical Developments International (MVP AU).The impact is quite large on the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) expected changes while there could be a large impact on Steadfast (SDF AU) if it is included in the ASX100.

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact & Large Shorts

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p><p>We have 8 days to go in the review period. The index currently has 297 members, so there will be 3 more adds as compared to the deletes.</p><p>We see 8 potential inclusions at the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betmakers-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25489:1" rel="noopener">BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novonix-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29093:1" rel="noopener">Novonix Ltd (NVX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dubber-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15396:1" rel="noopener">Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>. </p><p>We see 5 potential deletions at the review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bubs-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6296:1" rel="noopener">Bubs Australia (BUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integrated-research-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6744:1" rel="noopener">Integrated Research (IRI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">Maca Ltd (MLD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-developments-interna" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18644:1" rel="noopener">Medical Developments International (MVP AU)</a>.</p><p>Among the potential adds, shorts have risen sharply on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betmakers-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25489:1" rel="noopener">BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU)</a> while shorts have risen on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-developments-interna" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18644:1" rel="noopener">Medical Developments International (MVP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bubs-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6296:1" rel="noopener">Bubs Australia (BUB AU)</a> among the potential deletions.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We have 8 days to go in the review period. The index currently has 297 members, so there will be 3 more adds as compared to the deletes.We see 8 potential inclusions at the review: Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Imugene Ltd (IMU AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU), Novonix Ltd (NVX AU), Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU), Johns Lyng (JLG AU) and Strike Energy (STX AU). We see 5 potential deletions at the review: Bubs Australia (BUB AU), Synlait Milk (SML NZ), Integrated Research (IRI AU), Maca Ltd (MLD AU) and Medical Developments International (MVP AU).Among the potential adds, shorts have risen sharply on Imugene Ltd (IMU AU) and BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) while shorts have risen on Medical Developments International (MVP AU) and Bubs Australia (BUB AU) among the potential deletions.

ASX300 Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Galore

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<p>Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian dollar was trading below fair value. &nbsp;After what had been a strong period of out-performance from US dollar earners, I concluded that without the tailwind of A$ over-valuation - which prevailed through most of 2014 - their returns in the near term would be capped. In this post, I show that recent currency appreciation has eliminated the modest under-valuation and been associated with under-performance from US$ earners. The basket is trading on a median 12 mth forward PE of 20x, which represents a 25% premium to the median estimate for the ASX100, slightly higher than historical norms. The premium reflects the fact that offshore earners have strong growth expectations and low betas, thanks to their defensive business models. I highlight that the stocks suffering from the highest level of analyst bearishness remain Cochlear, Treasury Wine Estates and Westfield, which each attract less than 20% of buy recommendations from analysts.&nbsp;

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Australia

Integrated Research Limited develops, sells and supports system and application management software products.  The Group's software is used by customers for a variety of services, including storage management, data collection, performance tracking, event automation, help desk applications, job scheduling and resource management.

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Integrated Research (IRI AU)

Integrated Research (IRI): Strong Turnaround

Integrated Research (IR) provided an FY24 trading update and effectively narrowed the previously provided guidance ranges to the top end

Bell Potter

Integrated Research Ltd - New Integrations: Aims to Regain Momentum in ‘23

Integrated Research Ltd New integrations: aims to regain momentum in ‘23 Integrated Research Ltd (ASX:IRI) is a software company providing...

Research as a Service (RaaS)

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact & Large Shorts

There are a lot of changes expected across the ASX100, 200 & 300 indices at the September rebalance. A lot of those stocks will have a large impact...

Brian Freitas

ASX300 Sep 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes Galore

There could be 8 adds and 5 deletes to the ASX300 index at the September rebalance. The stocks have moved but the index is not very widely tracked,...

Brian Freitas

A new narrative for the Australian dollar (update)

Two months ago, Evidente published a report which suggested that contrary to the RBA's view that the currency remained over-valued, the Australian...

Sam Ferraro

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