Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off. The main reason for this atypical behavior is the fallout from the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus of last year. A positive outcome is an increase in the number of trading opportunities as a result of this behavior.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off. The main reason for this atypical behavior is the fallout from the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus of last year. A positive outcome is an increase in the number of trading opportunities as a result of this behavior.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Are Underperforming the US

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the rise in betas and correlations of EM rates with the US and identify the countries that are the most and least vulnerable to a continued rise in US rates.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the rise in betas and correlations of EM rates with the US and identify the countries that are the most and least vulnerable to a continued rise in US rates.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries Are Vulnerable to a Further Rise in US Rates?

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central bank's target range.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central bank's target range.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically lower than that of US rates but not this time. An upshot of the rise in volatility is the availability of more trading opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically lower than that of US rates but not this time. An upshot of the rise in volatility is the availability of more trading opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Volatility as High as the US in a Rare Occurrence

India

Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) is a fixed/float interest rate swap where the floating leg is computed using a published overnight index rate. The index rate is typically the rate for overnight unsecured lending between banks, for example the Federal funds rate for US dollars, Eonia for Euros or Sonia for sterling

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INR 10Y (IRSWO10 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Are Underperforming the US

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off, which is a fallout from the unprecedented...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

While Mexico's central bank held rates steady at the meeting last week, we continue to expect it to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries Are Vulnerable to a Further Rise in US Rates?

We discuss the reasons behind the rise in betas and correlations of EM rates with the US and identify the countries that are the most and least...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Volatility as High as the US in a Rare Occurrence

We discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically below the US but not this time. An upshot is the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)