Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 1st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,251.0 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank, Moutai, East Money Information, Haitian Flavouring.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 1st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,251.0 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology, health care.
We highlight flows for BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank, Moutai, East Money Information, Haitian Flavouring.


Northbound Flows (Sep 1st): BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank, Moutai

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q results came in slightly below us, with revenue and net profits growing only 1%/3% (vs CMBIe MSD growth for both), respectively.</li><li>We attribute this to &lt;1%/- 9% growth/decline in liquid milk/milk powder revenue, when both exhibited slowdown from 1Q. Management did not explicitly revise down the 10% full year revenue guidance, and looks forward to seeing the below to help attain the target.</li><li>These include 1) the continued double-digit growth in Satine, when premium room-temp milk remains popular among health-conscious consumers; 2) a recovery on 2C demand for cheese products, as initiatives taken for 2C (new launches) and 2B (consumer education) should start bearing fruit; 3) a gradual recovery on low-temp SKU along with the resumption of consumption habits post-pandemic; and 4) the resolution of patent bottleneck associated with Ausnutria. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2Q results came in slightly below us, with revenue and net profits growing only 1%/3% (vs CMBIe MSD growth for both), respectively.We attribute this to &lt;1%/- 9% growth/decline in liquid milk/milk powder revenue, when both exhibited slowdown from 1Q. Management did not explicitly revise down the 10% full year revenue guidance, and looks forward to seeing the below to help attain the target.These include 1) the continued double-digit growth in Satine, when premium room-temp milk remains popular among health-conscious consumers; 2) a recovery on 2C demand for cheese products, as initiatives taken for 2C (new launches) and 2B (consumer education) should start bearing fruit; 3) a gradual recovery on low-temp SKU along with the resumption of consumption habits post-pandemic; and 4) the resolution of patent bottleneck associated with Ausnutria. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – 2Q Rev/Np +1%/3%; All Eyes on Cost Savings

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 25th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,207.8 million, led by consumer staples, industrials, and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB, Ping An Insurance, Longi Green, Mindray, Wuliangye, ZTE, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Luxshare Precision, Ping An Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 25th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,207.8 million, led by consumer staples, industrials, and offset by communication services.
We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB, Ping An Insurance, Longi Green, Mindray, Wuliangye, ZTE, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Luxshare Precision, Ping An Bank.


Northbound Flows (Aug 25th): Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Performance of China A-share consumer staples stayed lacklustre in the last three months, underperforming benchmark indexes. Negative consumer sentiments have weighted on them. </li>
<li>The pullback in valuations, however, has made them look more appealing now. Excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a>, there has been no earnings downgrades. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanxi-xinghuacun-fen-wine-factory-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9288:1" rel="noopener">Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anjoy-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30110:1" rel="noopener">Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Group (603345 CH)</a> have pre-announced 1H23 results which showed good 2Q23 earnings.</li>
</ul>


Performance of China A-share consumer staples stayed lacklustre in the last three months, underperforming benchmark indexes. Negative consumer sentiments have weighted on them. 
The pullback in valuations, however, has made them look more appealing now. Excluding Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH), there has been no earnings downgrades. 
Both Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Group (603345 CH) have pre-announced 1H23 results which showed good 2Q23 earnings.


China A-Share Consumer Staples: The Most Challenging Time Is Behind

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,012.2 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 21st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,012.2 million, led by information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate.
We highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.


Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Northbound Flows (Sep 1st): BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank, Moutai

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – 2Q Rev/Np +1%/3%; All Eyes on Cost Savings

2Q results came in slightly below us, with revenue and net profits growing only 1%/3% (vs CMBIe MSD growth for both), respectively.

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 25th): Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northbound Flows (Sep 1st): BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank, Moutai

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for BYD, CATL, Wuliangye, Citic Securities, Ping An Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – 2Q Rev/Np +1%/3%; All Eyes on Cost Savings

2Q results came in slightly below us, with revenue and net profits growing only 1%/3% (vs CMBIe MSD growth for both), respectively.

CMB International

Northbound Flows (Aug 25th): Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai, CMB

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Iflytek, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Moutai,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China A-Share Consumer Staples: The Most Challenging Time Is Behind

Negative consumer appetite has affected the performance of Chinese A-share consumer staples. With no significant earnings downgrades for most, the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows (Jul 21st): ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ZTE, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Longi Green, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM