European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Share Repurchase Programme: EUR 800M buyback (4% of market cap) aims to cancel shares, boosting EPS and shareholder value, funded by non-core asset sales.</li>
<li>Valuation Insight: Current market price significantly undervalued versus EUR 42.68 consensus target and EUR 43.80 DCF valuation, offering substantial upside potential.</li>
<li>Strategic Alignment: Ensures financial discipline (DFN/EBITDA 5–6x target by 2025/2026) while enhancing returns via repurchase programme and increased dividend payouts from 2026 onward.</li>
</ul>


Share Repurchase Programme: EUR 800M buyback (4% of market cap) aims to cancel shares, boosting EPS and shareholder value, funded by non-core asset sales.
Valuation Insight: Current market price significantly undervalued versus EUR 42.68 consensus target and EUR 43.80 DCF valuation, offering substantial upside potential.
Strategic Alignment: Ensures financial discipline (DFN/EBITDA 5–6x target by 2025/2026) while enhancing returns via repurchase programme and increased dividend payouts from 2026 onward.


Cellnex Share Repurchase Programme: Valuation and Potential Impact on Stock Price

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digitalbridge-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20231:1" rel="noopener">DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US)</a> at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). </li>
<li>Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). </li>
<li>Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    </li>
</ul>



JTower (4485 JP) has recommended a tender offer from DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). 
Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). 
Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    


JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Italy

Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A. operates in the sector of infrastructure for electronic communications. The Company focuses on the constructions of radio transmission infrastructure (towers, trellises and poles), telecommunications and distribution of television and radio signals.

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Infrastrutture Wireless Italia (INW IM)

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

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Cellnex Share Repurchase Programme: Valuation and Potential Impact on Stock Price

​Company initiates EUR 800M buyback to boost EPS and shareholder value, undervalued stock offers substantial upside potential, financial discipline...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Company initiates EUR 800M buyback to boost EPS and shareholder value, undervalued stock offers substantial upside potential, financial discipline...