European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 at same level).
Spreads could further widen in the short-term. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, Schindler, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.</li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>According to Invest Chosun, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ricoh-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1" rel="noopener">Ricoh (7752 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


According to Invest Chosun, Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) plans to submit a merger registration statement to the KRX in July, with Mirae Asset Securities acting as the lead underwriter.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.

Canon (7751 JP)'s most recent buyback should be done now-ish. They have been ~15-20% of volume over the past month. The Trade would be short Canon vs Ricoh (7752 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47%; GBL, 40.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 7%; Investor B, 11.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.3%. </li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Of interest: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47%; GBL, 40.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.1%; Industrivärden C, 7%; Investor B, 11.7%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 47.3%. 
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC widened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Of interest: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June’23 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Carlsberg, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, VW, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

Sweden

Industrivarden AB is an investment company.  The Company's holdings consists of a portfolio of listed Nordic industrial companies.

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Industrivarden AB (INDUA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August‘23 Report

Since mid-July, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Interesting situations, in my view: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Celltrion, Fast Retailing, Canon, Costa, Chindata

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June’23 Report

The discounts to Net Asset Value of covered holding companies in the European liquid universe have generally widened during June.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June‘23 Report

Since mid-May, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (13 have tightened, 6 widened). Some spreads are relatively large, such...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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